An assessment said whether the CLARITY Act, regarded as key legislation for the U.S. crypto market, passes depends on three issues: the scope of regulation for Web3 developers, pushback from law enforcement agencies and a tight congressional schedule.

On June 10, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz (마이크 노보그라츠) said the bill’s fate depends on the last 2 to 3 issues. He went to Washington for urgent meetings with Congress to pass it within the remaining 4 weeks before the summer recess.

Novogratz still sees the chances of passage as high, but market sentiment is moving in the opposite direction.

On prediction market Polymarket, the likelihood of the bill passing within 2026 fell to 48 percent from 62 percent. It said investor doubts grew after the White House held a closed-door meeting with judicial authorities and some Democratic senators withheld support until law enforcement agencies sign off.

The first issue is the legal status of Web3 developers. Novogratz said the burden of change will not be shared equally. About 60 crypto industry leaders are calling for provisions protecting software developers to be included through the Blockchain Regulation Clarity Act, or BRCA. They argue that open-source programmers and validators should not be placed under the same regulatory framework as exchanges or brokers.

The second is a clash with law enforcement agencies. They believe exempting developers from oversight could make it harder to respond to anti-money laundering, or AML, requirements. A failure to reach a compromise on this issue is seen as the biggest bottleneck, as it would make it difficult to move to a Senate vote. This is also where Novogratz and industry lobbyists are focusing their coordination work in Washington.

The third is time. Novogratz called the remaining 4 weeks the market’s "last chance". He believes that once the summer recess begins, the midterm election phase will intensify, and partisan confrontation will worsen afterward, making bipartisan agreement effectively difficult. As a result, the congressional calendar as well as the bill’s substance has emerged as a factor affecting the chances of passage.

He compared lobbying work in Washington to "trench warfare" and described it as a draining process. At the same time, he praised the persistence of the lobbyists involved. Novogratz said passage of the bill should be an opportunity to show U.S. society that even a divided Congress can still cooperate.

In this situation, the bill’s direction now depends on where to draw the regulatory boundary between the tech industry and law enforcement agencies. Adjustments on whether to put developers on the same footing as transaction infrastructure operators or treat them as a separate category are needed to move to a Senate vote. With a 4-week deadline before the summer recess, the central question in U.S. crypto legislative discussions is whether a political compromise can be reached in a short period.

Headed to DC for a full day of meetings. I still am an optimist and think we will get this Clarity act over the hill. Senators on both sides have spent an inordinate amount of time on this bill. It’s a very complicated piece of legislation and we are down to two or three…