[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] A warning has emerged that XRP could fall by about 15 percent more on a monthly chart basis.

According to blockchain media outlet U.Today on Tuesday, XRP is under downward pressure after breaking below the Bollinger Bands midline, with the lower band at $0.9306 set as the next major price level.

The market is now focused on the $1 level. XRP traded at $1.1233 on the day and is down 15.62 percent so far this month. A monthly XRP/USD chart on TradingView showed XRP fell below the 20-day moving average of $2.062 and still has room to drop further toward the lower Bollinger Band.

It is not only technical levels that look weak, but also market structure that is tilted to the downside. CoinGlass data show stop-loss orders for leveraged long positions are concentrated near $0.9306. That means if this price area is tested, automatic liquidations could cascade. The market has already been warned that XRP is nearing the risk of losing its "core $1 altcoin status."

Shrinking volatility was also cited as a source of concern. The recent drop in XRP has been taking place as Bollinger Band width has narrowed sharply. Such moves typically do not end with a prolonged sideways phase, and can be followed by a strong directional breakout. This zone was presented as a turning point that could determine the fate of the $1 level for years ahead.

Institutional inflows are also failing to stop the bearish move. U.S. spot XRP ETFs are maintaining cumulative net inflows of $1.43 billion, and some funds are buying during declines. Still, the scale of those inflows is not offsetting an overall contraction in market trading activity. The ETF structure holds positions passively, while the retail investor market is not showing the strength or volume to push back against the downtrend, a critique said.

External capital flows are also working against XRP. Expectations surrounding a SpaceX stock listing expected on June 12 are growing, shifting global attention to other assets. That means XRP weakness is not only about internal supply and demand, but is also intertwined with the broader dispersion of funds across risk assets.

A key point to watch is whether large institutional buy orders actually come in around $0.9306. That level is cited as a historical support line. But another warning said that if major investors do not execute waiting orders in this zone, XRP could break below the lower Bollinger Band and remain below $1 throughout the summer. Ultimately, more than whether there is a short-term rebound, defending $1 and confirming support at $0.93 have emerged as key variables that will determine XRP's next move.