[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] XRP fell below its February low and rebounded around $1.05, but the market is seeing analysis that the downtrend is not over.

On June 9 (local time), blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that XRP fell to a weekly low of $1.05 and then recovered $1.11, but has not yet tested the key weekly support level at $0.94.

Looking only at the weekly move, XRP is up about 2 percent since early in the week. It has rebounded about 11 percent from the low near $1.05. Still, the dominant view is that it is too early to see the recent bounce as a trend reversal. TradingView analyst Duke noted that last week XRP fell below $1.117, which has been seen as a bottom since a sharp drop on Feb. 6.

Duke said a long tail was left on a large bearish candle last week and that area has not yet been filled. He said of the decline, "There is a need to check whether it was a price breakdown that did not actually happen, or whether the market is postponing an inevitable decline."

Market participants are focusing on liquidity remaining near $1.05. Duke said a liquidity pool has formed below the recent low and XRP buyers are strongly defending that price band. He explained that the area could be where stop-losses and liquidation prices for large futures positions are concentrated, or a zone where spot buy orders are waiting.

That has also clarified the next target for bears. Duke said sellers will continue trying to secure liquidity in the $1.05 range until last week's tail area is filled or subsequent price action invalidates the possibility of lower prices.

Downward pressure still remains on the upside. XRP continues a pattern of lower highs, with each rebound being pushed back at a level below the previous peak. Duke pointed to this as a signal confirming a continuing bearish trend.

The most recent lower high was $1.607 in mid-March. He said the rebound attempt at the time amounted to only a temporary retracement and showed that sellers entered before the price reached the previous high.

Technical resistance also remains. XRP is trading below the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), and a rebound attempt on May 14 also stalled around that area. The fact that the direction of the weekly EMA itself is pointing lower was also cited as a factor supporting seller dominance.

Still, the key defensive line on the downside is holding. XRP remains above the major weekly support near $0.94, the high from June 2023. The fact it held that level despite the recent sharp drop was presented as one basis for judging liquidity near $1.05 to be strong.

Key points to watch are whether XRP retests $1.05 and whether it can defend weekly support at $0.94. Duke said if seller dominance continues and last week's tail area is filled, the next target could be $0.94. That would amount to an additional adjustment of about 20 percent from the current price of $1.17.

If XRP regains the 21-week EMA and breaks the lower-high pattern, the recent rebound could be seen as an attempt at a trend reversal rather than a simple technical retracement. For now, he said, defending liquidity near $1.05 and holding support at $0.94 are more important than whether the rebound continues.

$XRP Heading Back To A Major Level The breakdown below the 21-week EMA continues to weigh on price, with XRP now drifting back towards the February low around $1.12. The recent bounce left a rejection wick and, for now, the lower-high structure remains intact. Bulls need to… pic.twitter.com/lQgLffd1TF