[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] A valuation model has suggested XRP’s fair market value could rise to $58 if it consistently processes about $5 billion in daily transactions.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on June 8 local time that Jake Claver (제이크 클레이버), CEO of Digital Ascension Group, presented an XRP fair value calculator based on Susan Athey and Robbie Mitchnick’s research, “A foundational valuation framework for cryptoassets.”

The key to the model is that it estimates XRP’s price by reflecting not only simple supply and demand but also network usage, circulating supply, holding patterns and long-term demand. Users can test multiple scenarios by changing key variables such as transaction volume, supply and holding period.

The baseline scenario assumes XRP continuously processes $0.005 trillion, or $5 billion, in daily transactions. It assumes stable but not excessive usage of the XRP network in payments and liquidity. On the supply side, it reflects the current circulating supply of 72.77 billion XRP and 27.1 billion XRP that will be escrowed or locked up in the future.

Ripple’s escrow structure is also included in the model. It assumes about 300 million XRP could be added to circulation each month, calculated as an annual increase of 3.6 billion XRP and 10.8 billion XRP over three years. Claver assumes it will take three years for these conditions to materialise and designed the structure so that after three years the circulating supply remains 72.77 billion XRP, with 27.1 billion XRP left in escrow.

A reserve ratio of 4 was applied as a variable to increase transaction efficiency. This means 1 unit of XRP supports multiple units of transaction value. A discount rate of 3 percent was applied, and the scenario success probability was set at 35 percent. The model itself reflects that success cannot be guaranteed.

The holding period was also set as a variable affecting price. The average holding period for XRP was entered as 20 days. This structure raises value as tokens remain longer in wallets, reducing supply immediately available in the market.

The long-term demand category includes $1.5 trillion in store-of-value demand. This figure does not mean XRP market capitalisation but is an assumed value indicating how much users would want to hold XRP. Applying all inputs, the calculator estimates XRP’s current value at about $58 per token if the scenario succeeds.

The probability-weighted price reflecting the 35 percent success probability fell to slightly above $20 per token. The $58 figure is the “price when it reaches the expected level of adoption,” and the $20-range figure is a “more cautious estimate that considers uncertainty.”

In terms of market reaction, the model is drawing attention as a quantitative valuation attempt as debate continues over whether XRP is undervalued. The calculator was not presented as a tool that definitively determines a future price. Claver also drew a line, saying the model only shows fair value if those parameters unfold as expected, and does not predict XRP’s future price.

Accordingly, a key point to watch is whether the assumptions presented can translate into actual network usage, supply structure and long-term holding demand. In particular, daily processing of $5 billion in transactions, circulation of escrowed tokens, changes in holding period and expanded store-of-value demand would all need to align for the price to approach the level the model presents.

We recreated Robbie Mitchnick's XRP valuation calculator on the BBMM site:https://t.co/qCCeImDGit Try this XRP valuation calculator to estimate a possible XRP price by changing the assumptions behind the Athey-Mitchnick cryptoasset valuation model pic.twitter.com/LNpyyW4VF3