[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee] The chances that the U.S. Congress will enact the key crypto bill known as the CLARITY Act in 2026 have fallen to 60 percent from 75 percent.

On June 7 local time, blockchain outlet CryptoSlate reported that Galaxy Digital lowered its forecast to reflect a reduced Senate schedule and delays tied to ethics and illicit finance issues.

The adjustment reflects a rapidly shrinking Senate legislative calendar rather than a collapse in support for the bill. The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 by 15 votes to 9, but it still faces a floor vote, debate, amendment processing, coordination with text from other committees, House procedures and the president's signature.

Galaxy Digital cited a lack of time, rather than weakening support, as the reason for the downgrade. Research head Alex Thorn said the Senate has few usable days before the August recess that begins in late July. The bill must secure 60 votes in the Senate, and floor debate, amendments and coordination with the Senate Agriculture Committee text also remain. That would make passage more likely if Senate Majority Leader John Thune assigns floor time in July.

The Senate calendar has tightened further over the past 2 weeks. Disputes over the administration's anti-weaponization fund and budgets for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the Border Patrol consumed floor time. Reauthorisation of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act also stalled after a 47-52 procedural vote, putting other legislative tasks back on the priority list ahead of a June 12 deadline.

Political issues also remain. Democrats, led by the camp around Senator Ruben Gallego, are seeking stronger ethics provisions linked to conflicts of interest. A faction focused on countering illicit funds says safeguards should be strengthened further against money laundering and sanctions evasion risks. Work to combine separate revisions from the Senate Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee into a single package is also unfinished.

A clash between banks and the crypto industry over stablecoins is also weighing on progress. The central issue is whether stablecoin balances can earn yield. Banks argue that allowing interest-like compensation on digital dollars could draw deposits out of checking and savings accounts while skirting rules that apply to regulated banks.

A survey sponsored by the American Bankers Association (ABA) supported that argument. It said consumers showed strong support for protecting local lending and the financial system from risks that could arise if interest-like compensation were allowed on stablecoins. The crypto industry, however, argues that rewards linked to payments, transactions, loyalty programmes and trading incentives are needed for payment innovation and user growth.

The bill is currently designed to prohibit passive yield paid simply for holding, while allowing activity-based rewards. The distinction could determine whether stablecoins remain a payment and settlement tool or expand into a substitute for bank deposits. Banks are pressing that crypto platforms should face bank-like obligations if they offer bank-like products.

A key variable is whether Senate leadership actually schedules floor action in early to mid-July. At the same time, lawmakers would need to narrow differences on ethics and illicit finance provisions, and the Banking and Agriculture committees would need to produce a single package suitable for debate. Galaxy Digital said such signals could mean the bill has secured both the necessary votes and the timetable.

If those conditions are not met, discussions are more likely to be pushed to after September. That could overlap with the election season and the autumn legislative schedule, making it difficult to rule out changes to the final compromise or a rollover to the next session. The CLARITY Act remains active, but legislative momentum has weakened amid Washington's calendar and the fight over stablecoin regulation.

The forecast cut shows that legislative scheduling and negotiation over detailed issues are a bigger variable than support for the bill itself. Stablecoin reward structures and adjustments to the oversight framework, in particular, have emerged as a key test for the direction of U.S. digital asset rules.