JPMorgan has assessed that the chances have declined that the CLARITY Act, a U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, will pass within the year.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on June 5 that while the bill cleared the hurdle of a Senate committee, it still faces a floor vote, coordination with the House and a presidential signature, leaving it uncertain whether it can be passed before the midterm elections.

A JPMorgan analysis team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a report this week that multiple obstacles overlap before the bill can be enacted this year. The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 by 15 votes to 9. It must still secure 60 votes on the Senate floor, align its language with the House and obtain the president's signature.

JPMorgan said the process still has multiple stages with high friction. It also raised the possibility that even if the bill passes, the content could differ significantly between the current draft and the final version because political incentives could shift around the midterm elections.

The legislative timetable is also tight. JPMorgan said that after the summer recess, the congressional schedule is likely to become packed in response to the November midterm elections, leaving about 9 weeks available for substantive deliberation. JPMorgan had previously said passage of the CLARITY Act could be a positive catalyst for the crypto market in the second half of this year, but this time it put the odds lower.

It cited as a key issue the question of providing returns to stablecoin holders. The bill's current wording sets a principle of banning passive returns on balances while allowing rewards linked to payments, transactions, usage and loyalty programs. But JPMorgan said the wording does not clearly specify a ban on paying interest on balances, leaving room for interpretation between banks and crypto firms.

Banks and the crypto industry also differ in their understanding of the issue. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon (제이미 다이먼) voiced dissatisfaction with the current CLARITY Act in an interview with Fox Business. He said banks would not accept it if crypto platforms can offer interest-like products without being subject to the same regulation as banks.

JPMorgan said that if effective regulation of passive returns is introduced, the flow of sidelined funds in the crypto market could shift more strongly toward tokenised U.S. Treasuries, digital money market funds and tokenised deposits. That means a single clause in the bill could affect not only stablecoin operators but also the structure of products where funds are parked.

Views within political circles are mixed. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt (패트릭 위트) urged swift passage at a Blockchain Association town hall event on June 4, describing the CLARITY Act as legislation to advance stronger regulation and law enforcement. By contrast, a TD Cowen analysis team kept a pessimistic view on the bill's prospects this year, saying the political environment surrounding it continues to worsen.

Senator Cynthia Lummis (신시아 루미스) warned at the same event that if the bill does not pass this year, consideration could be delayed until 2030. The points to watch will be whether it can secure 60 votes on the Senate floor, how it coordinates text with the House, and how clearly it refines provisions on interest-like rewards for stablecoins. If this issue is not settled, the CLARITY Act is more likely to shift back into a long fight.