[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Concerns are growing that U.S. stock markets could face a major liquidity drain as possible initial public offerings by mega artificial intelligence companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic may cluster in the same period. The market is also watching for ripple effects in cryptocurrencies if the companies absorb hundreds of billions of dollars in investment capital.

On June 3, blockchain media outlet Cryptopolitan reported that venture investor and analyst Tomasz Tunguz projected the combined valuation of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could reach up to $3 trillion.

Based on that, if about 20 percent of total shares are assumed to be available for trading, the required IPO fundraising would total about $432 billion to $576 billion. The outlet said that would exceed what U.S. companies have raised through IPOs over the past 10 years.

It also noted that other large listing candidates, including crypto exchange Kraken, defence startup Anduril and design platform Canva, are waiting in the wings, raising worries that the rush of funds into new listings could intensify.

Market participants are focused on more than valuations. A bigger variable is that the free float released after listings could be extremely small. Some companies may put only about 3 to 8 percent of total equity into the public market.

A smaller free float can make share prices swing sharply depending on supply and demand. Critics also point to potential gaps between real market value and perceived liquidity during inclusion in major indexes.

Some analysts say the structure resembles token listing methods once seen in crypto markets. During the 2021 bull market, many crypto projects used limited initial circulation and long lockups to form high market capitalisations. When lockups later expired and large volumes hit the market, many token prices plunged, prompting criticism that retail investors bore the losses.

SpaceX is cited as a representative case illustrating such concerns. The market has raised the possibility that SpaceX could list while allowing only about 5 percent of total shares to trade. In that case, the remaining 95 percent would be held by existing investors and insiders. According to an S-1 filing, the basic lockup period is 180 days. Some shares, however, could be released early after the first-quarter earnings release, and additional shares could come to market if certain conditions are met.

In particular, it is known to include a structure under which the volume of shares eligible for early selling increases if the stock rises more than 30 percent above the offer price. In that case, an additional 10 percent of shares subject to early release could come to market. The market has likened this to crypto’s phased lockup-release method.

Changes in the regulatory environment are another variable. Nasdaq is reported to be reviewing ways to significantly shorten SpaceX’s listing process compared with current procedures. The S&P index has also eased some profitability requirements, leaving room for large growth companies to be included earlier.

That could lead to large inflows into newly listed stocks from pension funds and institutional investors. The article also raised the possibility that pension assets of up to $30 trillion could be indirectly exposed to these stocks.

There is also controversy over pricing. SpaceX’s expected offer price is said to be about $135 per share, but some on-chain trading platforms are trading at prices above $700 per share. That suggests a wide gap between pre-IPO expectations and the actual offer price.

The market expects a key variable in coming months will be how much investor capital large IPOs actually absorb. If mega listings related to AI and the space industry materialise, it has also been suggested that less money could flow into other risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The industry expects the 2026 IPO market to become a testing ground for whether high valuations, limited free float and phased share-release structures can also work successfully in traditional financial markets, beyond a simple boom in new listings.