[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] An analysis said the spread of hybrid work may have played a bigger role than artificial intelligence (AI) in the rise in youth unemployment.

Tech outlet TechRadar reported on Tuesday that the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York saw the expansion of working from home as capable of explaining about 64 percent of the increase in unemployment among college graduates.

The core of the analysis is that weak hiring of young workers is not a phenomenon that appears only after the spread of AI. The unemployment rate began rising after the pandemic and continued from a point before the AI boom. The unemployment rate for college graduates under 29 rose to 3.7 percent from 3.1 percent between 2017 and 2022. For college graduates aged 22 to 27, it rose to 5.6 percent in 2026 from 3.6 percent in 2019.

Differences by age group were also clear. The same pattern appeared relatively weakly among older workers, but young people were assessed as more vulnerable to changes in the hiring market. Entry-level workers in particular need frequent feedback, on-site coaching and mentoring opportunities, which were explained as working more strongly in an office setting.

This raised the possibility that companies in a hybrid environment preferred workers who already had experience rather than taking on the burden of training new hires. Entry-level employees often need repeated feedback during work processes, on-site guidance and mentoring opportunities. It suggests that requiring office attendance may be linked not only to improving productivity but also to the need for in-person development of new hires.

Interpretations of companies' return-to-office policies could also change. Executives have typically emphasised a return to the office on the grounds of improving productivity, but the results suggest demand for in-person work experience for entry-level staff may be a more direct backdrop. As hiring and training structures for new hires clash with hybrid work, preference for experienced hires may have strengthened in the job market.

That does not mean AI has had no impact. Experts warned that automation of junior roles and administrative work could, in the long term, lead to a shortage of skilled workers. They also said it is hard to rule out the possibility that AI's impact will grow over the next few years.

This makes it harder to explain weak youth employment only with theories of AI replacement. The current deterioration in hiring for young college graduates can be seen as the result of a combination of the spread of remote and hybrid work, the cost of developing new hires, companies' preference for experienced workers and concerns about AI automation. How companies' return-to-office policies and automation of junior roles develop is expected to remain a key variable in the outlook for the youth job market.