Stellar Lumens (XLM) has been rising sharply, but an analysis says it would need nearly a 10-fold gain from its current price to reach the same market-cap scale as XRP. Markets are attributing XLM strength to expectations tied to the U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), but whether actual usage expands is seen as a key variable for future price moves.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain specialist outlet, reported on Sunday that Chad Steingraber, described as an XRP community figure, argued XLM would need to rise to about $2.50 to reach XRP’s market capitalisation.

The gap between the two assets’ market caps is large. CoinMarketCap data show XLM trading at $0.2539, up 8.3 percent over the past 24 hours and about 65 percent over the past week. Its market capitalisation is about $8.5 billion. XRP trades at $1.3, down 2.5 percent over 24 hours and down 4.5 percent over the past week. Its market capitalisation is about $80.6 billion, nearly 10 times larger than XLM’s.

Citing that gap, Steingraber analysed that XLM would need to rise about 10 times to around $2.50 to reach XRP’s market capitalisation.

XLM’s recent strength has coincided with expectations of cooperation between the Stellar network and DTCC. Markets are seen as reflecting expectations that the project could expand Stellar’s role in tokenised assets and financial infrastructure in the future.

Steingraber said the current rally reflects investor expectations ahead of any rise in actual usage. He said, "This is not yet a stage where DTCC-related services are being used in earnest, and it is closer to a phase of speculative buying by retail investors."

Markets are also discussing the possibility that expectations could be further priced in ahead of the project’s launch. Steingraber forecast that gains could continue in June as investors price in upcoming launch events.

He expected initial transaction volume to be limited. He said real demand is more likely to build gradually over several months rather than appearing all at once immediately after the launch.

When DTCC-linked effects will be fully reflected in the market is also uncertain. Steingraber expected actual adoption to expand gradually during the second half of 2026, and projected that a more full-scale commercialisation phase would come after October this year. He added that the project could reach full scale in the first half of 2027. This has led to an interpretation that the market is pricing in future growth potential ahead of actual usage.

Based on performance since the start of the year, XLM has significantly outpaced XRP. XLM is up about 25 percent this year, while XRP is down about 30 percent over the same period. As this trend continues, investors are also discussing whether XRP can regain an uptrend, citing past high price correlations.

Even so, XRP still holds an advantage in network scale and market capitalisation. The analysis says that despite XLM’s recent surge, it would need a substantial additional rise to narrow the gap with XRP.

Markets see how long DTCC-related optimism persists, and whether actual usage growth can support higher prices, as key factors that will determine XLM’s medium- to long-term trajectory.