Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holder supply hit a record 15.8 million bitcoin, but the market is finding it hard to read that as a strong bullish signal, an analysis said. It said the rise in long-term holders is more likely to reflect slowing trading and weakening demand than fresh inflows. Blockchain media outlet CoinPost reported the details on May 29 (local time).

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, in its latest weekly report, interpreted the current rise in long-term holder supply as a bearish-type indicator. If bitcoin is not actively traded and short-term buying is not sufficient, existing holdings are reclassified as long-term holdings, increasing supply, it said.

Short-term holder supply has in fact fallen from a recent peak of 6.4 million bitcoin on Dec. 24, 2025, to about 4.2 million bitcoin as of May 27. The decline exceeds 2.1 million bitcoin. About 900,000 bitcoin of that reflects bitcoin kept as Coinbase customer assets being automatically reclassified over time from short-term to long-term holdings. That helps explain why it is hard to say large amounts of new funds have flowed in even if long-term holder figures have risen.

Flows among large holders pointed in a similar direction. Bitcoin balances held by whales with 1,000 to 10,000 bitcoin are declining at the fastest pace this year on a year-on-year basis. CryptoQuant noted that the trend is similar to the 2022 bear market. Monthly growth has stayed near zero since February 2026.

Mid-to-large holders with 100 to 1,000 bitcoin are still increasing, but the pace has slowed sharply. This segment has a large share of spot ETF and corporate holdings, and its annual growth rate fell to well below trend after peaking at plus 970,000 bitcoin in October 2025. Monthly balance growth has also kept falling since September 2025.

CryptoQuant assessed that structural demand that had led the current cycle is steadily decelerating. On a monthly basis, it also saw accumulation by both whales and mid-to-large holders as effectively stalled. It added that a prolonged flat trend among whales suggests large holders excluding exchanges have shifted from aggressive accumulation to neutral, and further toward a somewhat selling stance.

A key point in terms of market reaction is that these groups have been a core pillar behind bitcoin’s structural demand. Based on past data, CryptoQuant said periods when monthly balance growth for both groups together neared zero appeared before sustained price declines. In that context, the report was read as a signal that actual inflows of new buying are more important than a simple increase in long-term holdings.

As a result, the key points to watch are likely to be a recovery in short-term holder supply and whether whales and mid-to-large holders turn to net buying, rather than any further increase in long-term holder supply itself. The report’s main point is that the surface-level indicator of rising long-term holders alone makes it hard to be optimistic about current bitcoin demand conditions.