An outlook suggests XRP could retest a long-term core support zone in 2026.

On May 23 (local time), blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that crypto analyst ChartNerd pointed to XRP’s long-term Gaussian channel structure and raised the possibility of a pullback to the mid mean-reversion band next year.

The key point is that XRP has repeatedly returned toward the channel’s center after major advances in the past. ChartNerd cited examples on long-term charts in which the price was pushed down to the green mid mean-reversion band after each prior cycle peak. He described the move back to a support zone after an overheated rise as “coming home.”

“History says there is a very high probability that at some point in 2026, XRP will return to the Gaussian channel’s mid mean-reversion band,” ChartNerd said. With the current price still above the midline, he judged that a similar pattern could unfold again if the current cycle continues into 2026.

The market is also seeing short-term weakness. XRP is trading around $1.31, and the risk of it sliding back into the $1.20 range is growing. The price fell 4 percent over the past 24 hours. That coincided with bitcoin falling to $74,000, spreading selling pressure across digital assets.

Broader investor sentiment has also weakened. Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell 2.37 percent, and CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index dropped to 35, indicating a “fear” zone. The recent weakness was presented as being driven mainly by risk-off sentiment tied to the macro environment rather than XRP-specific factors.

Still, the analysis focuses on long-term structure rather than short-term price swings. ChartNerd said that if this cycle is truly “different,” XRP would have to break a market structure that has lasted for more than 13 years. He added that the monthly Gaussian channel should continue to work effectively unless a larger cyclical trend changes.

ChartNerd also offered specific price levels for the scale of a correction. He expected XRP to revisit around $0.70 in the next major downside phase. XRP has already fallen more than 60 percent from a peak of $3.65. He had previously mentioned the possibility of a rebound to double-digit prices after that zone forms a bottom.

That leaves two key points for the market to watch. In the short term, the question is whether weakness in bitcoin and the broader market will pull XRP back into the $1.20 range. In the long term, the focus is whether the Gaussian channel’s mid mean-reversion band will serve as actual support in 2026. Ultimately, whether XRP repeats past cycles or creates a different path remains a variable that will shape its future price trajectory, the outlet reported.