Bitcoin is increasing the likelihood of retaking $80,000, supported by spot buying, expanding futures open interest and improved institutional flows.

On May 1, local time, blockchain outlet Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin rose 2.52 percent after retesting its 100-day exponential moving average over the past two days and traded above $78,800 on Friday.

On the daily chart, the 100-day exponential moving average is currently acting as a dynamic support line. That helped keep a bullish trend intact on higher time-frame charts.

Spot demand also strengthened. Spot cumulative volume delta, which shows net buying and net selling, climbed to 11,500 BTC, the highest since Feb. 17. That means buyers absorbed market supply during the recent downswing.

The derivatives market also saw new positions. Bitcoin futures open interest rose 6.64 percent over 24 hours to 257,000 BTC. After leverage of about 9,000 BTC was previously flushed out, the market was also seen building positions again.

Futures trading volume recovered to 98,300 BTC. It signals that net buying pressure has revived. It still fell short of levels seen during the April 27 pullback, suggesting traders are still building positions.

Liquidity is concentrated in the $78,000 to $80,000 range. Short positions worth $2.1 billion are at risk of liquidation there, raising the possibility of a short squeeze near key price levels.

Institutional flows are also favorable. The 30-day change in balances at over-the-counter desks was about minus 20,700 BTC, down to March 2025 levels. As more bitcoin moved out of OTC desks, the amount that could immediately hit the market decreased.

ETF flows moved in a similar direction. Bitcoin ETF inflows in April totaled $1.97 billion. Echo Inometrics noted the longest streak of net inflows in 2026, extending for nine straight days. In the short term, focus is on how much longer inflows will continue and how thin liquidity above $80,000 becomes as spot, futures and institutional participation expands.