Major South Korean game companies are forecasting unusual first-quarter earnings improvements, a period typically classified as an off-season. Pearl Abyss and NCSOFT in particular are expected to post sharply improved results from new releases that gained traction early. Krafton and Netmarble are expected to benefit from steady performance of existing intellectual property, while Nexon is seen posting double-digit top-line growth based on company guidance.

New releases deliver a dramatic reversal; Pearl Abyss and NCSOFT results seen rebounding sharply.

Pearl Abyss is expected to post first-quarter revenue of 291.6 billion won, up 248.5 percent from a year earlier, according to financial information firm FnGuide. Operating profit is seen at 125.0 billion won, turning profitable from an operating loss of 5.2 billion won a year earlier. That would mark a 2,484.5 percent increase.

The key driver is the open-world action-adventure title Red Desert, released on March 20. Red Desert sold 2 million copies on the first day, 3 million in four days and 5 million in 26 days. Pearl Abyss plans to roll out patches through June reflecting user feedback, including boss rematches, new outfits and difficulty settings, to maintain momentum.

NCSOFT is expected to post first-quarter revenue of 518.1 billion won, up 43.8 percent from a year earlier. Operating profit is forecast at 93.0 billion won, up 1,681.5 percent from 5.2 billion won a year earlier.

Two main drivers are Aion 2 and Lineage Classic. Aion 2, released in November, topped 100.0 billion won in cumulative revenue in two months, and deferred revenue from the fourth quarter will be additionally reflected in the first quarter to support growth. Lineage Classic surpassed 50.0 billion won in payments in three weeks after its February release and recorded a peak concurrent user count of 320,000. An analysis says Aion 2 attracted users in their 20s and 30s while Lineage Classic captured those in their 40s and 50s, helping diversify the user base by age group.

On the cost side, higher marketing and labor costs from consolidating subsidiaries Rihuhu and SpringComms partly limit profitability, but revenue growth far exceeds that. A global launch of Aion 2 within the year and the consolidation of JustPlay are being watched as key momentum drivers.

Krafton, Netmarble and Nexon expected to extend growth on existing IP.

Krafton is expected to post first-quarter revenue of 1.21 trillion won, up 37.9 percent from a year earlier. Operating profit is forecast at 409.8 billion won, down 10.4 percent.

Strong performance in both PC and mobile for PUBG: Battlegrounds drove revenue growth. The PC segment saw traffic and spending rise on a January New Year event, a March ninth anniversary event and resales tied to an Aston Martin collaboration. On mobile, Greater China title Game For Peace rebounded as operations normalized after a halt to fourth-quarter promotions, and PUBG Global in the Middle East set a record for revenue during Ramadan.

The slight decline in operating profit from a year earlier reflects higher labor, marketing and commission expenses from consolidating ADK, along with one-off costs including about 40.0 billion won in retirement consolation payments. The rise in traffic continues after the first quarter. After the PvE roguelite mode Xenopoint was added in April, peak daily concurrent users rose from the 700,000 range to more than 900,000 for the first time since 2020.

Netmarble is expected to post first-quarter revenue of 692.1 billion won, up 10.9 percent from a year earlier. Operating profit is forecast at 72.5 billion won, up 45.8 percent, extending the improvement trend.

The main reason was that March new titles such as Stone Age: Raising and The Seven Deadly Sins: Origin had a short number of operating days in the first quarter. From the second quarter, revenue from these new titles will be reflected for a full period, and the scale of improvement is expected to widen.

Mongil: Star Dive, released in April, topped the popularity rankings within a day in South Korea's two major app markets and in Japan's App Store. SOL: Enchant is due in June, and more titles including Solo Leveling: Karma are also slated for the second half. FnGuide also raises the possibility that Netmarble's annual revenue this year could surpass 3.0 trillion won for the first time.

Unlike other listed companies, Nexon uses company-provided guidance rather than FnGuide consensus. Nexon projected first-quarter revenue of 1.40 trillion won to 1.52 trillion won, equivalent to 32 to 44 percent growth at quarterly average exchange rates from a year earlier. It forecast operating profit in a range of 475.2 billion won to 567.5 billion won.

The MapleStory franchise posted 43 percent revenue growth last year from the year before, and earned about 40 percent of total revenue overseas. Nexon is preparing to apply that formula to the Dungeon & Fighter IP, with launches planned for DNF Raising this year and Dungeon & Fighter Classic next year.

Chairman Patrick Soderlund (패트릭 쇠더룬드) said at a Capital Market Briefing in March that the company would shift strategy to focus capabilities on projects with a high likelihood of success.