Cardano (ADA) has entered the second bearish phase of a multi-year down channel, and could slide to $0.10 by year-end if a 2022-like pattern repeats, an analysis showed.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Monday that market analyst TradingShot assessed Cardano as moving within a five-year down channel since its all-time high of $3.10 in 2021.

The key point is that the current price zone resembles a past bottom-building phase. After its 2021 peak, Cardano weakened in a narrower descending wedge and fell to $0.239 in December 2022, down 92.3 percent from the high. It then rebounded to $1.32 in December 2024, the cycle high, a gain of 452 percent from the low. At the time, the price touched the channel’s upper resistance line and momentum weakened there.

Cardano later tried again to break above the resistance line, rising to $1.02 in August 2025, but stalled. The market then tilted back to a bearish tone, and Cardano entered the second bearish move within the multi-year down channel. The current price was presented at about $0.249, down 75.5 percent from the bearish channel high of $1.02.

TradingShot compared the current zone to June 2022. On the weekly chart then, the price set a lower low, but the relative strength index (RSI) formed a higher low, signaling bullish divergence. The signal did not lead to an immediate rebound, but after the pattern completed, Cardano broke above the bearish channel and moved higher. With a similar bullish divergence now spotted, TradingShot analysed that Cardano could again show a price path similar to 2022.

The analysis was not limited to hopes of a short-term bounce. TradingShot suggested that if the 2022 bear cycle is repeated, Cardano could fall to at least $0.10 by year-end. That would be an additional 59.8 percent drop from the current price, and TradingShot assessed that zone as a "long-term buying area for the next bullish phase."

A rebound path was also presented. In the shared chart, a pullback to $0.245 from the buying area was presented as the first target. If the prior pattern repeats in full, the scenario also included Cardano rising again to around $0.70, the channel’s upper resistance line. It added that if the channel is broken in the next bull market, the rise could be larger.

In the market, the focus of the analysis is on structural flow rather than a short-term price forecast. Cardano’s medium- to long-term buying strategy could also change depending on whether the current zone is a bottom-building stage like in the past or whether the downtrend will last longer. As a result, key points to watch are whether the bullish divergence leads to an actual break from the channel, and whether the suggested $0.10 zone materialises.

#Cardano has been within a Bear Cycle since December 02 2024, the 2nd Bearish Leg of its 5-year Channel Down. Based on the current 1W RSI Bullish Divergence, #ADA is in a similar spot as June 2022. If it repeats the 2022 Bear Cycle, $ADA will be targeting at least $0.1000 by… pic.twitter.com/jKaZNvW4OW