Brent crude has rebounded from a low formed in the aftermath of war, but traders continue to leave the futures market.

On April 16, BeInCrypto reported that Brent was trading around $94.92 a barrel and showing a rebound. But the upside momentum has weakened as falling volumes coincided with a sharp drop in open interest.

The market focus is not the price rebound itself, but the nature of the money that follows. Brent has extended declines since a mid-March high and formed an inverse cup-and-handle, a bearish continuation pattern, on the chart. After hitting a war-driven low of around $90.29, prices retraced about 5%, but an analysis says the rebound corresponds to the handle portion of the pattern.

The problem is that market participation has clearly fallen during the rebound. Recent candle volume was around 6,880 contracts, far below levels seen when the cup portion was forming.

Open interest fell more sharply. Open interest that topped 700,000 during the March rally fell about 30% to 491,810. That shows money, or traders, is actively leaving oil futures markets.

The same trend is seen in the options market. In April 15 options data for the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), which tracks Brent futures, the put-call volume ratio was tallied at 0.13 and the open-interest ratio at 0.25. The figures suggest a strong tilt toward call options, but the market is not reading it as a simple bullish bet. It says traders are buying upside calls as shock insurance against the possibility of an expansion of an Iran blockade.

Volatility indicators point in the same direction. Implied volatility was 72.80%, and the IV percentile was 88%, both high. That means the market is pricing in the potential for large swings in oil prices. But the IV rank staying at 50.18% shows this elevated volatility has persisted throughout the year due to the war.

By price zone, short-term resistance and downside support appear relatively clear. Brent's first resistance is $97.05, the Fibonacci 0.236 level. If it clears that, a test of $103.90 is possible. But a recovery to $103.90 alone does not remove the bearish structure. To invalidate the bearish pattern, Brent must rise above $111.80 on a daily closing basis.

On the downside, the path is clearer. A drop below $92.81 would break the handle zone, and losing $89.39 could lead to a neckline breakdown. In that case, the measured decline from the inverse cup-and-handle pattern is calculated at about 28%, with a target area in the $65 range. A chart support line is also formed near $65.04.

Ultimately, the key pivot points are $92.81 and $111.80. The $92.81 level determines whether the rebound structure holds or the market moves toward completing the pattern. By contrast, only a recovery above $111.80 on a closing basis would remove the current bearish structure. But judging by volumes and open-interest trends so far, the market is putting more weight on defensive positioning against the possibility of shocks than on a strong trend reversal.