XRP has fallen sharply from its 2025 peak, but an analysis says the current $1.39 range is supported by stronger network activity than at the time.

According to blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic on April 15, CryptoQuant analyst YJ said in a recent analysis that the XRP market is moving away from speculation toward a more stable fundamentals zone.

The key indicator cited was the network value to transactions (NVT) ratio. NVT compares the network’s total value with actual transaction volume, and is used in a way similar to the price-to-earnings ratio in traditional finance. A high reading suggests market value is rising faster than network use, signaling potential overheating. A low reading means network activity is relatively strong compared with price.

YJ said the current XRP price aligns better with actual network activity. XRP rose to $3.6 in July 2025, but the price at the time was ahead of real usage, he said. Now, even with a lower price, network participation has strengthened, increasing fundamental support, he explained.

The NVT trend has also changed. In 2025, there were repeated periods when NVT surged, which is read as a sign that price was moving ahead of real-world use. From late 2025 to early 2026, as valuations cooled, those spikes eased. NVT now stands at 170.2, in a neutral-to-low range compared with elevated 2025 levels. YJ said this shows the current $1.39 price is supported more by actual transaction volume than before.

Transaction data point the same way. When XRP mostly traded between $2 and $3 in 2025, daily transactions were about 1.1 million to 2.2 million, and only in some periods did they jump to 2.6 million. From February to December 2025, daily transactions never exceeded 2.8 million.

In 2026, network activity increased while the price stayed around $1.3 to $1.4. Daily transactions ranged from 1.79 million to 3.0 million, and in some periods exceeded 4.4 million. Last month, they rose to 5.17 million, the highest in 2 years. This year, daily transactions have not fallen below 1.7 million, with the low at 1.74 million on Jan. 1. Even with a lower price, more users joined the network, leading to an improved NVT, he said.

YJ also cited reduced volatility in market conditions. He said that in April 2026 the NVT line has been moving in a narrower range, showing volatility compression. Such phases can typically appear ahead of bigger price moves, but for now he said it is more important that network activity remains steady even as the price stays in a tight range.

Institutional inflows were also cited as a variable. YJ mentioned that more than $1 billion has flowed into spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He said such funds could add more stable and meaningful volume and help restrain NVT from rising excessively again.

The analysis concludes that the key point is not that XRP is staying at a lower price range, but that the network activity supporting that price has strengthened compared with 2025. The XRP market is shifting away from the overheated phase of 2025 toward a period where real usage and trading volume move together, and whether this trend translates into actual price moves will be the point to watch.