XRP has shown a sluggish trend around $1.35, but on-chain indicators are sending stronger signals than the price.

The network value-to-transactions (NVT) ratio for XRP has recently fallen to about 170, compared with levels above 1,200 in mid-2025, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported on April 15. NVT is an indicator of whether network value is supported by actual usage. In general, a higher reading is seen as raising the likelihood of speculative overheating, while a lower reading is interpreted as higher network utilisation relative to price.

XRP community analyst Xyf said XRP's value is now better supported by actual on-chain use than it was at past peaks. When XRP traded above $3 last year, speculative demand played a larger role in lifting prices than sustained network activity, the analyst said.

Assessments also point to different fund flows. More than $1.23 billion is locked in spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which is seen as a sign of institutional inflows. Xyf said exchange holdings are also declining, raising the possibility that selling pressure is easing. As NVT volatility has narrowed as well, another view is that the market is entering an accumulation phase rather than weakening.

Investor sentiment remains weak. XRP is down about 60 percent from its 2025 peak. Bearish sentiment has also moved to an extreme, and Lucky Luciano, known as an early bitcoin investor, said the negative mood could instead be a bottom signal. Markets often see pullbacks when sentiment tilts excessively to one side, the investor said.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment show a similar trend. Santiment's readings put bearish sentiment toward XRP at its highest level in 2 years. Such pessimism has appeared in the past ahead of rebounds. Retail investors are pulling back and confidence is weakening, but from a contrarian view it is seen as a zone that suggests the possibility of a short-term relief rally.

A holder profit-and-loss indicator is also being cited as a sign of a bottom. XRP's MVRV has fallen to levels seen during the FTX crisis, and holders are in an average 41 percent loss zone. While accumulated losses and weak sentiment have weighed on prices, historically such low MVRV levels have at times been seen as an opportunity zone. In a similar environment in December 2022, prices later rose by more than 60 percent.

The key question is whether buying demand actually recovers. XRP is not showing a clear direction based on price action alone. Still, with an NVT decline, ETF inflows, falling exchange balances, a low MVRV and extreme bearish sentiment overlapping at the same time, the market's internal structure looks different from the previous bull run. Even if the price looks dull, the core of the current trend is that signals preparing for a rebound are accumulating on-chain.

The core of the current trend is that the mix of on-chain indicators has changed even as prices remain flat. Rather than moving only on speculative demand as in the past, XRP has entered a phase where actual usage, fund inflows and whether selling pressure is easing also need to be checked together.

Everyone's sleeping on xrp right now. the chart looks boring. but the on-chain data is screaming something else pic.twitter.com/MNRDXj34wv