Citadel Securities said the likelihood of a worst-case scenario in the Iran conflict has fallen sharply, and it expects stocks and bonds could rise together.

A blockchain media outlet, BeInCrypto, reported on April 14 that Nohshad Shah (노샤드 샤), Citadel Securities' head of fixed-income sales for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), assessed geopolitical risks related to Iran as moving away from an extreme phase.

The core of the outlook is that the chance of a full-scale escalation is falling. Shah said Iran's leadership is prioritising regime survival, and China also has strong incentives to press for de-escalation. With these conditions overlapping, he assessed that the likelihood of further military clashes is gradually declining.

Shah said, "Developments will become clearer over the coming weeks, but the most important point for markets is that it looks like a substantial portion of the worst-case scenario tail risk has been cut off." That means the range of risks markets need to price in is shrinking.

Citadel Securities maintained its view that the situation is heading toward a resolution even as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues. Shah said the conflict's "endgame" is drawing closer. He said both Washington and Tehran face rising costs from a prolonged confrontation, reducing the incentive to drag out the clash.

U.S. stocks showed a similar pattern to that outlook. Based on Google Finance tallies, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 1.02 percent to 6,886 on April 13. The index has recovered almost all of its declines since the Iran war began in late February.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.23 percent, the Russell 2000 Index gained 1.5 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6 percent. The rebound that began last week also held. The S&P 500 recorded its longest streak of consecutive gains since October 2025 last week.

On Wall Street, a buy-the-dip view is also gaining traction again. JPMorgan Chase said a strategy of buying on market pullbacks remains valid despite geopolitical risks. It judged that another V-shaped recovery is possible given the conditions. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee has also previously forecast that U.S. stocks have already passed the bottom and could rewrite record highs for indexes this year.

Against this backdrop, the market's focus is on whether easing tensions will lead to an actual diplomatic solution. Citadel Securities said it does not see all uncertainty as resolved immediately, but it considers the retreat of worst-case risks in stock and bond markets to be more important. As a clearer outline of conflict resolution emerges over the next few weeks, the key question is whether risk assets and safe-haven assets will continue to strengthen in tandem.