A forecast says annual prediction market trading will reach $1 trillion in 2030.

On April 14 local time, blockchain outlet The Block Crypto reported that global investment bank Bernstein expects the prediction market, which has grown mainly around sports, to continue rapid growth as it expands into information markets across politics, the economy, macro indicators and culture.

Bernstein said prediction market trading totalled about $51 billion in 2025. That was about three times the previous year, reflecting liquidity that had been concentrated on the 2024 U.S. presidential election moving to contracts tied to sports, cryptocurrency, macroeconomics and politics.

Trading is also growing quickly. Combined year-to-date trading on Kalshi and Polymarket has already reached $60 billion. Bernstein estimated trading will rise to $240 billion in 2026 and post an 80 percent compound annual growth rate through the end of 2030.

Bernstein pointed to regulatory clarity and blockchain-based infrastructure as drivers of growth. It said clarity at the federal level is opening a broader market than traditional state-by-state regulatory systems. It also said blockchain-based tokenisation and links with cryptocurrency markets are enabling global liquidity, the creation of niche event contracts and institutional participation.

State-level scrutiny has continued in recent months over sports event contracts, but the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has said it has "exclusive jurisdiction" over prediction markets and is working on rules in line with industry expansion. The possibility that regulatory leadership may shift from state governments to a federal regulator is emerging as a key variable for market expansion.

Sports currently sits at the centre of trading. Bernstein analysed that sports betting contracts account for 62 percent of all prediction market trading. It said structural limits at online sports betting platforms and fragmented state-by-state regulation have worked in favour of sports prediction markets.

Bernstein said that share is likely to fall to around 31 percent by the end of 2030. It added, "Sports is only an entry point, not the final destination."

It also projected that bigger opportunities will come from cryptocurrency, macroeconomics, politics and economic contracts. As investors want more direct and specific exposure to certain events, an institutional market is forming around economic, business and political contracts. It also said hedging demand is likely to emerge among companies and insurers exposed to specific event risks.

Monetisation is also accelerating. Bernstein estimated the industry's annual recurring revenue will expand from $400 million in 2025 to about $2.5 billion in 2026. It said trading growth and stronger monetisation are advancing at the same time. Polymarket has recently moved away from a zero-fee model and is operating at an ARR of about $420 million. Total industry revenue is projected to grow to about $10.8 billion by the end of 2030.

Interest from the securities industry is also shifting to platforms that serve as distribution channels. Bernstein named Robinhood and Coinbase as key distribution layers for prediction markets. It estimated that Robinhood reached about $350 million in annual recurring revenue within 12 months after launching a Kalshi-based prediction market hub.

In a separate analysis, Bernstein said prediction market growth and a recovery in the cryptocurrency market could lead to "asymmetric upside" for Robinhood shares. It forecast Robinhood's prediction market revenue will rise from about $150 million in 2025 to about $586 million in 2026, a 286 percent increase from the previous year. It also said the World Cup to be held in the summer of 2026 and U.S. midterm election-related political schedules in the second half could spur growth in prediction market trading.

Bernstein also maintained an "outperform" rating on both Robinhood and Coinbase, and set target prices of $130 and $330, respectively. Whether prediction markets remain a substitute for sports betting or expand into an information trading market is expected to be a key point to watch for future industry growth.