XRP’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) fell to 32.37, re-entering a zone that appeared ahead of major price surges since 2016.

On April 13 local time, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic, citing an analysis by market analyst CryptoInsightUK, reported that large rises followed each time XRP’s weekly RSI fell below 32.78.

The signal comes as XRP remains in a prolonged downtrend after hitting an all-time high (ATH) of $3.6 in July 2025. XRP is down 63 percent from that peak, and the weekly RSI has dropped from 70 at the time to 32.37. The weekly RSI has not fallen below 30, meaning it has not entered the traditional oversold zone, but the analysis said it is still a meaningful level compared with past moves.

CryptoInsightUK noted that all of XRP’s “major breakout points” since 2016 came after the weekly RSI fell below 32.78. When the RSI fell to 32.76 in November 2015, XRP slid to $0.00416, then surged from about $0.005 in late February 2017 to $3.31 in January 2018. In March 2020, the RSI recorded 32.67 and XRP fell to $0.1275 before rising to $1.96 in April 2021.

Still, it is difficult to pin down the timing of a rise. CryptoInsightUK said, “If past patterns repeat, XRP could see an explosive rise at some point in the future,” but added, “It is uncertain when such a move will actually emerge.” It has not yet been confirmed whether the RSI will close below 32.78 by the end of this week.

Interpretations also surfaced over whether XRP is oversold. XRP’s weekly RSI has officially entered oversold territory only once, when it fell to 28.09 in June 2022. There was no immediate surge at the time, and a strong upward trend followed only after the RSI fell below 32.78 again in mid-2024.

A commentator in the XRP community said many analysts and investors tend to strengthen a bullish view only when the RSI enters oversold territory. The commentator stressed that past moves show a drop below 32.78 alone was sufficient for a major rise to follow. The commentator added that such rallies generally appeared after a substantial time lag.

Ultimately, the indicator is significant less as a signal of an immediate rebound in XRP’s price than as a sign that a technical zone seen just before major bull markets has formed again. The market is watching this week’s weekly RSI close and whether, despite the ongoing downtrend, the signal leads to a medium- to long-term rebound as it has in the past.

Occasions when $XRP weekly RSI has dipped below 32.78 in Yellow. In White, times when the weekly RSI has hit oversold. pic.twitter.com/TGCX22bPqX