[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] Bitcoin (BTC) showed short-term weakness due to geopolitical risks, but the market is producing analysis that leans toward a rebound based on supply-demand and technical indicators.

CoinDesk reported on Saturday local time that risk-off sentiment spread across global financial markets after U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Iran-related peace talks held in Pakistan had collapsed. Bitcoin also went through a short-term pullback in the aftermath.

Even so, internal crypto market supply-demand has stayed firm. Strategy, the largest bitcoin-holding listed company, bought an additional roughly $330 million worth of bitcoin last week, lifting its total holdings to 766,970 BTC. Some estimates say the activity generated additional demand of about 8,000 BTC this week alone.

Institutional flows also tilted bullish. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $787 million this week, the strongest since early March, according to Sosovalue data. Cumulative inflows total about $2 billion.

Analysts are focusing on direction and persistence rather than absolute size. Markus Thielen (마르쿠스 틸렌), founder of 10X Research, assessed that bitcoin’s downside risk could be structurally limited as long as Strategy’s steady buying and supply absorption via ETFs continue. Citing technical indicators that signal oversold conditions, along with a recovery in risk-asset appetite across mining stocks and the broader U.S. stock market, he presented a base-case scenario of a move toward $88,000.

Related assets have also been positive. Major mining stocks including TeraWulf, Bitdeer Technologies and IREN have risen 10 to 30 percent so far this month. In U.S. equities, the S&P 500 has gained about 4 percent, and Nvidia has also risen. The moves are seen as signaling the market is shifting back toward growth and AI investment themes.

U.S. investors’ buy-side edge has also been confirmed. CoinGlass data show the Coinbase Premium Index rose to 0.0586 percent, the highest since October last year. That is interpreted as a signal that U.S. spot buying pressure is stronger than in overseas markets.

Expectations that regulatory uncertainty may ease are also supporting sentiment. Matt Mena (맷 메나), 21Shares' lead crypto research strategist, assessed that if the Clarity Act being discussed in the United States passes, it could provide a structural path higher for the crypto market.

The bill seeks to clarify the boundary of jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and lays out criteria for distinguishing whether a digital asset is a security or a commodity. Polymarket participants currently price a 65 percent chance that the bill will be signed into law within this year. The bill passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 but is currently pending in the Senate.

Market participants have also laid out a more specific price path. A scenario being discussed is that if bitcoin regains $73,000 it could test $75,000, and if it then breaks above $80,000 it could rise quickly toward the $90,000 range. If the macro environment remains stable, a possibility of $100,000 by the end of the second quarter is also being raised.

On the supply side, some analysis says sell-side pressure is not large in the upper $70,000 range. Vikram Subburaj (비크람 수부라즈), chief executive of India’s Giottus exchange, said supply distribution data show circulating bitcoin between $72,000 and $80,000 accounts for only about 1 percent of the total. He explained that if bitcoin keeps breaking through current resistance levels, thin supply above could lead to relatively faster price discovery.

Overall, geopolitical risks are increasing short-term volatility, but within the bitcoin market, ETF inflows, additional buying by large holding companies, U.S.-investor-led spot demand and expectations of clearer regulation are simultaneously acting as bullish factors. These views rest on the assumption that broader risk-asset investment sentiment does not deteriorate sharply.