[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Only 0.015 percent of traders on prediction market platform Polymarket consistently posted monthly profit of at least $5,000 (about 7.4 million won), data showed.

Cointelegraph reported on April 9 that cryptocurrency analyst Andrey Sergeyenko (안드레이 세르게옌코프) found cases of steady profit sufficient to replace a main job on Polymarket were extremely rare.

The disclosed data showed about 16 percent of Polymarket users were in profit, but the share that maintained high profit for a long period was very low. Nearly 1 percent of traders exceeded $5,000 in a month. But the share repeating that profit the next month fell to 0.1 percent, and the share sustaining it for 4 consecutive months dropped to 0.015 percent.

The figures show it is difficult to secure a stable livelihood through prediction market trading alone. Consumer Shield said the average monthly salary in the United States is about $5,220 (about 7.7 million won). Even if users made profit on Polymarket for a month, only a very limited number sustained the trend.

Prediction markets are seen as one of the most watched use cases in the cryptocurrency industry recently. Users bet and trade on outcomes across politics, sports, corporate earnings and cultural events. In the market, they buy and sell an event’s outcome as shares in the form of “yes” and “no”, with prices set between $0 and $1. The structure allows profit by buying undervalued shares and reselling at a higher price, or by holding a position that settles at $1 after an outcome is confirmed.

But the actual distribution of profit differed from expectations. Sergeyenko presented the data alongside an example of Logan Sudais (로건 수다이스), a former financial risk analyst, who quit his company job, entered prediction markets and earned $100,000 (about 148 million won) in December last year. He also cited that a former Messari analyst known as “Tulip King” claimed on X, formerly Twitter, in November last year that Polymarket was “the easiest place to earn a six-figure profit” in the cryptocurrency market now.

But only 840 wallets made more than $100,000 in profit. That is about 0.033 percent of Polymarket traders. Even that is hard to see as all individual users. Sergeyenko pointed out that professional traders working at hedge funds and other companies also participate in prediction markets. He added, “The less experienced the user, the lower the trading performance,” and said, “Less experienced users are bound to find it relatively difficult to succeed.”

Sustained activity among high-profit users was also low. Of 6,600 wallet addresses with average monthly profit of more than $5,000, only 172 addresses continued activity for more than 1 year. In other words, most traders trade briefly and then leave.

The analysis has limitations. Sergeyenko said he reflected only realised profit and loss. He also explained that 96 percent of total trading volume occurs in markets where outcomes have already been confirmed. The data covered April 2024 to April 1, 2026.

The figures show a gap between the prediction market boom and the actual profit structure. Polymarket has emerged as a leading use case in the cryptocurrency industry, but only a tiny number of users sustained high profit and the share that maintained long-term activity was also low. Separate from the spread of prediction markets, the figures mean participants who can use it as a main-job level income source are limited.

I found that 84% of Polymarket traders lose money, and only 2% have made more than $1,000 in total profit. What are the odds if someone quit a job for @Polymarket? Full results with raw data in my article.https://t.co/eLtdodobcN pic.twitter.com/ehRvHh7MYZ