A recent White House stablecoin report is unlikely to ease political hurdles facing U.S. cryptocurrency legislation, an analysis said.

On April 9, blockchain outlet The Block reported that TD Cowen assessed that the path to passing the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, could become even more difficult.

The issue is whether to allow yield attached to stablecoins. A report released that day by the White House Council of Economic Advisers judged that even if stablecoin yield is banned, the impact on bank lending would not be large. It cited that most stablecoin reserves would flow back into the banking system and that the share actually removed from lending funding would be small.

The report said that in its baseline scenario, removing stablecoin yield would increase bank lending by $2.1 billion, a net gain of just 0.02 percent of total loans. It said that for loan effects of hundreds of billions of dollars to appear, it would need to assume at the same time that stablecoins grow sixfold, reserves move entirely to segregated custody, and the Federal Reserve abandons an ample-reserves framework.

That conclusion is closer to the crypto industry's view than banks' claim that stablecoin rewards would trigger large-scale deposit outflows. TD Cowen said small banks are likely to question both the assumptions and the conclusion in the report. As long as banks see stablecoins as a threat to their deposit base, they are likely to keep opposing crypto bills that do not clearly include a yield ban.

Jaret Seiberg (자렛 세이버그), managing director at TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, said the report also showed another signal from the White House. He said President Donald Trump may want the CLARITY Act to allow stablecoin yield. In that case, a compromise that allows rewards for stablecoin use but bans yield tied to holding platforms could also become harder to win the president's support.

Whether the crypto industry and banks can reach a compromise remains uncertain. Senators were expected last week to release final legislative text on stablecoin yield, but there has been no further news. The parties continue trying to reach agreement.

Seiberg's earlier outlook is also turning more pessimistic. Last week, he put the chance of passing a crypto bill this year at about one-third. He said the bill could be enacted only if Congress pushes legislation even without full agreement from both banks and the crypto industry. He also noted that this is not a common route in the U.S. Congress. He previously forecast that if political hurdles are not resolved this year, passage could slip to 2027 and final rules could take effect in 2029.