[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Strategy (MSTR) bought additional bitcoin, but the market price reaction appeared limited. An analysis says big buying news no longer sways short-term prices, and broader market fund flows have emerged as a key variable in price formation.

CoinDesk, a blockchain media outlet, reported on April 7 that Strategy recently bought an additional 4,871 BTC for about $330 million. Despite the large purchase, bitcoin showed no clear upward reaction, and some stretches instead saw a weaker trend.

The backdrop is a change in the structure of fund flows in and out of the market. On-chain data firm Checkonchain said Strategy's current buying demand accounts for about 7% of total gross inflows and about 9% on a net inflow basis. While gross inflows reflect only funds entering the market, net inflows include both buying and selling and more accurately show actual price pressure. That means Strategy's buying remains large, but its influence is limited within overall market flows.

It was different in the past. Strategy's buying demand peaked at more than $15 billion in November 2024. That coincided with the period when bitcoin broke above $100,000 and MSTR shares hit a record high. Since then, its buying has stabilised in a $1 billion to $4 billion range, and was tallied at about $2.8 billion over the past 30 days.

On the supply side, the movement of long-term holders (LTH) was cited as the driver of change. CoinDesk classifies coins held for more than 155 days as held by long-term holders, and said the scale of supply changes they create totals about $28.5 billion. It also pointed to about $9 billion worth of coins held for more than 1 year that moved again over the past 30 days as a key factor increasing market supply pressure.

Other supply and demand factors are also working in combination. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted about $1 billion in net inflows over the past 30 days. New supply through mining is about 450 BTC a day, which is estimated at about $880 million a month when it is slow.

A bigger variable is capital outflows. Bitcoin realised market capitalisation fell by about $29 billion on a 30-day basis since February. Open interest (OI) in BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), also fell by more than $4 billion. The media outlet judged those outflows to outweigh Strategy's buying demand.

Ultimately, despite Strategy's aggressive buying, supply changes by long-term holders and the flow of funds leaving the market have a bigger impact. That is seen dispersing the force moving bitcoin prices.