Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing a bullish shift signal on the weekly MACD, fueling expectations that its medium- to long-term trend could change for the first time since May 2025.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain outlet, reported on Sunday that bitcoin reclaimed the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) on a weekly closing basis. The weekly MACD is also moving in a direction that suggests the downtrend is breaking.

This week, the key point is that both a “technical reversal signal” and “macro variables” could move prices at the same time. The previous weekly MACD bullish shift appeared in May 2025, and bitcoin then climbed from $94,000 to $119,000 over the next two months, setting a new record high.

Some see that zone as a turning point for the broader crypto market. Analyst Crypto Seth said, “Holding that zone is important for the crypto industry as a whole.” Galaxy Trading compared the time it took for the weekly MACD to turn positive in past bear markets, and noted that the 2018 bear market took about 245 days.

Short-term supply and demand are already choppy. Bitcoin touched $70,000 after the weekly close to set a new April high, and short positions were heavily shaken in the process. CoinGlass data showed cumulative liquidations over 24 hours exceeded $250 million.

Downside liquidity also remains. Trader CrypNuevo said there were liquidation orders at $64,000 to $64,500, adding, “This adds fuel to a downward move.” CryptoQuant said aggressive short-term positioning has returned as cumulative net taker volume and open interest (OI) jumped on Binance, and contributor Amr Taha explained that renewed speculative participation in derivatives, as well as spot strength, is supporting prices.

The macro environment is also a burden. With war tensions continuing around the United States, Israel and Iran, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has moved above $115 a barrel. The market is also watching a deadline at which U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of large-scale infrastructure strikes if there is no deal.

U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data and consumer price index (CPI) figures are also due this week. Mosaic Asset Co mentioned the impact of a surge in oil prices and a fertilizer shortage on food prices, and said inflation outlook risks remain. Research firm The Kobeissi Letter said, “If this level holds for about seven more weeks, U.S. CPI inflation will rise to about 3.7 percent,” and set a base-case scenario of 3 percent. The CME FedWatch tool was analysed as indicating virtually no chance of a rate hike or cut at the Federal Reserve meeting in late April.

Technically, optimism and caution coexist. The recovery of the 200-week EMA and expectations of a weekly MACD turn are a source of hope, while a battle at the lower support line of the second “bear flag” of 2026 is a warning signal. Keith Alan (키스 앨런), co-founder of Material Indicators, said, “Structurally, bitcoin price action is almost identical to the previous bear flag structure,” and an anonymous trader, LP, also argued that “a new low is likely just a matter of time.” Alan also mentioned the possibility of further declines after a resistance test at $67,000 to $69,000.

This week’s bitcoin market is seen as a zone where hopes for a technical rebound clash head-on with macro uncertainty. The recovery of the 200-week EMA and the possibility of a weekly MACD turn are read as clues to a medium- to long-term trend change, but with an oil price surge, inflation data and geopolitical tensions acting as simultaneous burdens, high volatility is likely to persist until direction is confirmed.