[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Elon Musk (일론 머스크) has joined a debate over whether quantum computers could decrypt Bitcoin (BTC). Musk drew attention in the community by saying that even wallets with forgotten passwords will one day become accessible.

CoinPost, a blockchain outlet, reported on April 6 that Musk jumped into a related discussion on his social media platform X, formerly Twitter. He also shared an analysis by the AI chatbot Grok, which he was involved in developing.

The debate was reignited after Google research circulated again on social media. Venture capitalist Max the VC posted on X a summary to the effect that Google cut the resources needed to decrypt Bitcoin by 20 times, adding that it could prove it but would not explain how. When crypto analyst Nick Carter shared the post, discussion also returned to a shift to post-quantum cryptography (PQC).

At the heart of the issue is that Google brought forward its target date for switching to post-quantum cryptography to 2029. This does not mean quantum computers will be able to break encryption by 2029, but is closer to a deadline to complete preparations before then.

A white paper released by Google suggested a possibility of decrypting ECC-256, an elliptic curve cryptosystem, in minutes with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. That would cut the required resources to about one-twentieth of previous estimates. Considering potential misuse, Google did not disclose the actual attack circuit and instead presented only the results using a zero-knowledge proof approach.

A particularly sensitive point in the crypto market is the risk of a "store now, decrypt later" attack. The idea is that even before quantum computers become practical, collecting and storing encrypted data now and decrypting it in the future is being cited as a realistic threat. Musk's remark that "wallets with forgotten passwords will one day open" underscored that possibility in a cynical way.

The analysis Musk presented along with Grok put the earliest point for decrypting ECC-256 at 2028 to 2029, with a more general outlook placing it in the early 2030s. It said, however, that when the threat becomes real could vary depending on the pace of quantum computer development and the level of commercialisation.

On the plus side, if you forgot the password to your wallet, it will be accessible in the future https://t.co/xAFtNGC5FE