On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that the United States will invade Iran this year has surged to 63 percent. Bets jumped after a social media post by U.S. President Donald Trump, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported on April 5 local time.

The odds of an invasion before 2027 are lower than the peak of 68 percent recorded on March 29. At the time, tensions rose as U.S. troop levels in the Middle East increased and comments emerged that the Trump administration was considering taking control of Kharg Island, a key hub for Iran's crude oil shipments. Trading volume for the prediction item was estimated at about $3.74 million as of the time of writing.

Market volatility is rising alongside mixed messages from the Trump administration. Trump had earlier suggested the possibility of an early wrap-up, saying in effect that the United States could get out of Iran within 2 to 3 weeks, but has recently sent signals in a different direction, adding to confusion. After the easing signal, bitcoin rose about 2.6 percent and the S&P 500 gained about 2.91 percent. Bitcoin has since risen less than 0.1 percent over 24 hours, remaining rangebound near $67,500.

Markets see the uncertainty spreading across risk assets. Cointelegraph said mixed signals about the direction and duration of a war are clouding investors' judgement and affecting risk-asset prices broadly.

Criticism has also emerged of Trump's hardline remarks. Economist Peter Schiff said, "I hope Trump stops threatening Iran's civilian infrastructure. It hurts both sides." He added, "If he does this, the war will escalate, U.S. standing will be damaged, it will generate sympathy for Iran, and it will stoke Iran's hatred toward the United States."

The oil market is also reflecting the tension. Brent crude, a key benchmark for global spot oil prices, is holding above $109 a barrel, showing a trend that reflects supply concerns tied to geopolitical tensions.