An analysis has suggested Ethereum (ETH) could fall to $1,736 if it fails to break above resistance at $2,150. On April 2, blockchain outlet Cointelegraph reported that if Ethereum does not climb above the $2,150 to $2,400 range on a daily close, the likelihood of retesting the year’s low could increase.

Over the past two months, Ethereum has met resistance near $2,150 seven times. On the daily chart, higher highs and higher lows continued, but the $2,150 level appeared to cap rebounds.

On the downside, whether it breaks below an upward trend line was cited as a turning point. If the trend line fails, $1,900 was first mentioned, where liquidity clustered at the same low in the first week of March. If that gives way, the bearish structure would strengthen and open the way to the year’s low of $1,736, the analysis said. A drop below $1,800 was also raised as a possibility.

Selling pressure also increased in the futures market. Data showed futures selling exceeded $1 billion, and an imbalance was identified on a liquidation heat map in the $1,845 to $2,255 range. About $2.4 billion in long liquidations accumulated at $1,845 and about $1.7 billion in short liquidations at $2,255, but the increase in short positions was limited despite price weakness.

The spike in futures selling was reported to have accelerated in earnest after remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump hinted military action could continue through late April and warned of a possible attack targeting Iranian power plants. On-chain analyst Darkfost said ETH futures selling volume on Binance rose by $1 billion in an hour.

By contrast, another analysis said that if Ethereum moves above $2,150 and maintains an upward trend, resistance up to $2,400 is relatively limited. If it then breaks $2,400, the next target zone was suggested near $2,800, where trading has been light over the past six months.

The market is seen as viewing the near-term recovery of $2,150 as the key line that will determine Ethereum’s short-term direction. With resistance repeatedly confirmed at the same level over the past two months, analysts said it would be difficult to interpret a failure to break that zone on a closing-price basis as a signal of recovering buying. If it clears the range steadily, accumulated overhead pressure could ease and market sentiment may improve somewhat.