[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] Citrini Research, a global macro and stock analyst, has presented a macroeconomic scenario assuming conditions in 2028.

On Feb. 23 local time, Cointelegraph reported that Citrini Research recently released a macro memo post written as if in June 2028. The article, written in February 2026, took the form of a future retrospective and spread quickly on X, formerly Twitter.

The scenario released by Citrini Research describes a structural shock in which artificial intelligence maximises corporate productivity but shrinks employment and consumption.

Under the scenario, expectations of efficiency in the early stage of AI adoption lift stock markets. The S&P 500 nears 8,000 and the Nasdaq index rises above 30,000. But as companies rapidly replace workers, the unemployment rate rises above 10 percent and consumption plunges. Companies speed up AI adoption further to defend profits, creating a vicious cycle that leads to additional layoffs and weaker demand.

In this process, the economy is reshaped so that the top 10 percent accounts for more than half of total consumption. Many high-income professional jobs are replaced by software and productivity indicators surge, but the real economy slips into a downturn, in what it described as a “ghost GDP” phenomenon.

The housing market was also cited as a source of instability. About $13 trillion in mortgages depend on employment stability, and if the unemployment shock widens, volatility in asset markets could rise, it warned. In the 2008 major financial crisis, loans were bad from the start, but in 2028 loans were fine initially, then the world changed as the unemployment rate jumped to 10.2 percent and the S&P 500 fell 40 to 60 percent from its peak.

The payments ecosystem also changes. AI agents prioritise cost and processing speed over brand loyalty and move away from existing card networks that charge 2 to 3 percent fees toward low-cost, high-throughput blockchains. That would weaken the traditional revenue model of Visa and Mastercard and could lead to wider use of stablecoin payments based on Solana (SOL) or Ethereum (ETH).

Jeff Park (제프 박), an adviser at Bitwise Asset Management, pointed out that “as AI makes the value of labour close to zero, wealth inequality has become more severe than before.” AI trader Miles Deutscher (마일스 도이처) also said that “as expectations for AI reach a peak, fears about its ripple effects are also growing.”

Citrini Research said these changes have already been showing signs since 2026. It forecast that productivity innovation triggered by AI could reshape financial markets, the real economy and payment infrastructure. It said unemployment, shrinking consumption and a widening flow of stablecoin-based payments are appearing in a chain reaction.