[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] Silver has rebounded about 18 percent from its 2026 low and is trading above $72, but the possibility of an additional drop of up to 36 percent in April has also been raised.

On March 31, BeInCrypto, a blockchain media outlet, reported that buy signals have increased in the short term, but the daily chart structure still takes the form of a "bear flag", and whether a key resistance level is broken could determine the future direction.

The outlet cited hidden bullish divergence as the backdrop for the rebound. From Dec. 12 to March 26, silver formed a higher low, but the relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator, recorded a lower low. It explained that, in the correction that began at $121, this suggests selling pressure is gradually being exhausted.

Some bottoming signals were also detected in futures market positioning. In the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly COT report, as of March 24, non-commercial long positions rose by 2,813 contracts to 33,938, while shorts increased by 21 contracts to 9,265. At the same time, open interest (OI) fell by 1,594 contracts from the previous report. BeInCrypto viewed the increase in longs alongside an overall reduction in positions as closer to conviction buying than to chasing.

The COMEX silver futures spread (SI1-SI2) remains in contango, a structure where longer-dated futures trade at higher prices. The spread has recovered to -0.52 from -0.82 on March 20, narrowing the contango. The outlet interpreted this as a signal that demand urgency is gradually returning.

Dollar strength was cited as a variable. The dollar index (DXY) has risen about 3 percent over the past month while staying above 100, and the outlet said the Iran conflict pushed up oil prices and spurred dollar strength. It also noted the possibility that the correlation could loosen near the lows, as DXY and silver have each risen about 1 percent over the past week. Gold rose 1.76 percent over the past week but fell about 13.7 percent over the past month, while silver has undergone a 23 percent correction over the same period.

The key April pivot was put at $74. If a daily close forms above $74, it could be seen as the first structural change, with recovery of the 20-day EMA at $75 and the 50-day EMA at $78 becoming the next hurdle. If both indicators are regained, a rebound path to $88.96 could open and the bear flag could be neutralised.

By contrast, the risk of a bearish cross is also growing as the 20-day EMA approaches the 100-day EMA at $73. If a cross occurs before $74 is regained, the possibility of retesting $66 and $60, the 2026 low, was raised. If the daily close falls below $68, it would break below the lower end of the bear flag and, based on the measured decline, a drop of about 36 percent would proceed, with $52 presented as an initial target.