XRP is attempting a technical rebound, but charts, derivatives and on-chain indicators are all warning of further declines, an analysis showed.

On March 27, XRP rebounded about 3 percent from a low of $1.31 to recover $1.35. A claim was raised that this was more likely a move forming a bear flag rather than a sustained recovery. Blockchain media outlet beincrypto reported on March 28 that chart, derivatives and on-chain data all warn of additional downside for XRP.

On the 12-hour chart, XRP is forming a bear flag pattern. The structure follows an 18 percent drop from $1.60 on March 17 to $1.31 on March 27, then a 3 percent rebound that creates a flag-shaped rising channel. Such a pattern typically suggests the downtrend continues for another leg, with a further decline similar to the length of the flagpole. If the pattern breaks down, XRP could fall further to $1.08.

The momentum indicator RSI also signaled negatively. From Feb. 6 to March 28 on the 12-hour chart, price formed lower highs while RSI posted higher highs, showing hidden bearish divergence. That indicates the existing downtrend is more likely to continue than to reverse higher.

In derivatives markets, XRP open interest rose 2.9 percent to $759.21 million from $737.72 million along with the rebound. The funding rate also improved to minus 0.003 percent from minus 0.011 percent and long positions increased, but this is closer to a warning signal than a bullish one. When open interest rises within a bear flag, the risk of new long positions being liquidated increases.

In the spot market, long-term holders are reducing positions. Glassnode showed that net holder position change, which held at about 123.80 million XRP from March 19 to 25, fell to 122.978 million XRP after March 25. That is a decrease of about 8.25 million XRP, or 3.47 percent, showing core holders are cutting holdings just before a price rebound.

If XRP manages a 12-hour close above $1.35, the downside risk could be delayed in the short term. But if it stays below $1.35, the downtrend is likely to intensify. If the pattern collapses and support at $1.31 to $1.32 breaks, an additional fall of about 18 percent could take it down to $1.08. Conversely, only a break above $1.60 would invalidate the bearish structure and could start a new upward move, the outlet said.