As data showed the chance of U.S. President Donald Trump being impeached stands at 70 percent, the memecoin named after him, OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP), is collapsing toward a record low.

BeInCrypto, a blockchain media outlet, reported on March 26 that TRUMP is extending its plunge, with downside pressure rising as a technical breakdown combines with political uncertainty.

TRUMP is trading at about $3.11, down more than 5 percent, and is nearing its all-time low of $2.705. It has already broken below the Fibonacci 0.236 level of $3.128, a key support zone. There is no clear support area to prevent further declines.

On-chain data also backs the bearish trend. Net exchange inflows have continued since March, and holders have been more focused on reducing positions than buying on dips. In early March, net outflows of several million to 10 million tokens a day were recorded. On March 14, there was a large inflow of about 22 million tokens, but it did not lead to additional buying afterward.

Profitability has also worsened. Over the same period, net realized profit and loss did not turn positive even once. Losses of about $70 million were recorded on March 14. Daily losses continued afterward, suggesting investors are selling to cut losses rather than taking profits. The market is interpreting this as a capitulation signal rather than normal capital rotation.

Political factors are also weighing on the token. Kalshi, a prediction market platform, puts the probability that Trump will be impeached before 2028 at as high as 69 percent. While the likelihood of impeachment in the near term is low, the analysis said growing long-term political uncertainty is weakening the token's core value base.

Technically, further declines remain possible. A drop of about 13 percent from the current price would push it below the all-time low, raising the likelihood of forming a new bottom. For a rebound signal, it would need to regain $3.39, the 0.382 Fibonacci level, and then hold above $3.81, according to the analysis.

The market views TRUMP as an asset closely linked to political events beyond being a simple memecoin, and expects its future price action to be heavily influenced by political risk and investor sentiment.