International gold prices are approaching a record-long run of eight consecutive monthly gains. The uptrend has continued as demand for safe-haven assets strengthens amid macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Market experts warn that “overheating signals and potential shock factors are also growing at the same time.”

On Feb. 22 local time, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that Mark Zandi (마크 잔디), chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said financial markets have become increasingly unstable and mentioned the possibility that a meaningful wave of selling could be triggered.

He said the biggest risks are in stocks and corporate bonds, but cryptocurrencies and gold and silver, which have recently undergone a correction, are not safe either. U.S. real GDP growth is in the low 2 percent range, below potential growth of about 2.5 percent, and the labor market is showing signs of stagnation. Inflation is also becoming more burdensome as it remains stuck at around 3 percent by the Federal Reserve's preferred PCE measure.

Tensions between the United States and Iran, the possibility of tariff issues resurfacing and a large fiscal deficit are also interacting. Zandi, in particular, pointed to leveraged hedge funds' deep involvement in the vulnerable U.S. Treasury market and warned that “if they rush for the exit at the same time, interest rates could surge.”

Even so, gold continues to attract attention as a representative store of value. Data from prediction-market platform Kalshi showed that gold is highly likely to post an eight consecutive month of gains.

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett (마이클 하트넷) advised, “Trade oil in the short term, but hold gold as a long-term safe asset.” Global central banks' gold holdings have, in fact, been tallied as surpassing their U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996. This suggests demand is strengthening to hedge against a dollar-centered fiat currency system.

There are also variables on the supply-demand side. In China, gold shortages have worsened after the Lunar New Year, with reports that some stores have stopped selling gold bars and refunded existing contracts. A surge in demand combined with supply constraints is fueling expectations of further price gains.

Some market participants are even raising the possibility that gold could reach $10,000 an ounce in an extreme scenario. Technical analysts, however, cite the $5,100 to $5,160 range as a key resistance zone and do not rule out a near-term pullback.

Ultimately, the gold market is striking a delicate balance amid a mix of factors: signs of an economic slowdown, entrenched inflation, geopolitical tensions, China-driven supply shortages and a fragile bond market structure.

If demand for safe-haven assets continues, the chances are high that gold will extend its record-long streak of gains. At the same time, investors are urged to take a cautious approach because price volatility could increase even with small shocks.