The Verge reported on Feb. 20 that prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are blurring the line between news and gambling.

The Verge said Polymarket is expanding its partnership with newsletter platform Substack and positioning prediction market data like news. Polymarket is sharing betting data through Substack and offering rewards to creators who use it.

This is not a simple collaboration. Dow Jones has reflected Polymarket data in content including The Wall Street Journal, and CNN and CNBC have also used Kalshi data in their reporting. Nate Silver (네이트 실버), who once gained fame for political statistics, now serves as an adviser to Polymarket.

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev (블라드 테네프) has even argued that “predictions are more valuable than news.”

The process of betting markets masquerading as news began in political coverage. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, prediction markets emerged as an alternative as confidence in polling wavered. Betting data from Polymarket and Kalshi began to be inserted naturally into news articles.

But The Verge said news is inherently the act of recording what happened, and betting data that predicts the future is not news.

Suspicions of insider trading linked to prediction markets have also been raised. Examples include a case in which someone made about 500,000 dollars by betting just before the kidnapping of the Venezuelan president, and a case in which someone took in more than 1 million dollars by betting on Google’s year-end search rankings. One analysis also said only about one-third of users actually make a profit.

There are also concerns that journalism, which has made pursuing the public interest its mission, could be reduced to a marketing tool for gambling platforms.