With XRP prices extending a prolonged downturn, a well-known market commentator has drawn attention by arguing that a bullish turn could come at the moment most investors let their guard down.

Blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported on Tuesday that XRP has remained in a bearish trend over the past 5 months. It has fallen about 60 percent from its all-time high of $3.66 set in July 2025, sharply weighing on investor sentiment. Expectations among traders who had been looking for another rally have faded, leaving the market mood calmer.

Against that backdrop, Vandell Aljarrah (반델 알자라), co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, said in a recent post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that "a true breakthrough will appear at a moment most investors do not expect." He argued it is likely that the moment XRP breaks above the $3.60 range, its July 2025 peak, and enters a new price band could coincide with a time when market participants have shifted their attention to other assets.

Aljarrah stressed that major market moves rarely happen when the public predicts them. He said they often unfold suddenly when investors lose interest or focus on other assets. He analysed the current prolonged downturn as creating such a "psychological blind spot."

He said past data also show this pattern. From late 2016 to early 2017, XRP underperformed relative to other cryptocurrencies, but it surged from about $0.005 in February 2017 to $3.31 in January 2018, a gain of about 66,100 percent. In March to April 2021, XRP rose about 369 percent from $0.41 to $1.96. It also jumped about 580 percent from $0.5 in November 2024 to $3.4 in January 2025, showing explosive moves over short periods.

Aljarrah also compared XRP to last year's parabolic surge in silver prices. He argued an "asymmetric move" - a sudden, one-way rise after a long quiet period - could be repeated in XRP. He stressed that XRP is currently in a psychological zone that is somewhat removed from investors' attention, and forecast that if momentum recovers, unprepared market participants could end up chasing the rally.

Financial analyst CoachJV has also offered similar optimism. CoachJV argued that at the end of 2024, many investors could miss buying opportunities at the $2, $5 and $7 levels and ultimately be swept up in FOMO and enter late around $100. Later, at the end of 2025, he reaffirmed his earlier view, saying that if XRP starts to move in earnest, it will be "fast and aggressive."

Ultimately, the market is showing mixed views over the possibility of a sudden rebound even in a prolonged correction. Analysis suggests it will depend on future market liquidity and shifts in investor sentiment whether the current slump is a precursor to further declines or a quiet accumulation phase ahead of a large-scale rebound.