An analysis says the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, is unlikely to make progress in Congress without the “direct intervention” of U.S. President Donald Trump.

On Feb. 2 local time, blockchain outlet The Block Crypto reported that investment bank TD Cowen said industry divisions and political hurdles continue to stand in the way of advancing the bill.

Jaret Seiberg (제럿 사이버그), a managing director at TD Cowen, assessed that the bill is unlikely to pass Congress unless Trump forces a compromise between the cryptocurrency and banking industries. On the same day, White House crypto chief David Sacks was reported to have held a meeting with the banking and crypto industries, including Coinbase, to discuss a compromise on a market structure bill.

A key point of contention is the stablecoin rewards issue under discussion at the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. Banks worry that deposits could flow out of the traditional banking system if crypto platforms pay rewards without clear limits. Some crypto companies counter that banks are trying to restrict competition, and say the issue was already addressed during discussions on the GENIUS Act passed last July.

TD Cowen said paying stablecoin rewards is inevitable, but it expects the timing of adoption and the level of regulation and oversight to be the central issues. It said stablecoins may not be a major threat in deposit competition until they are widely used in everyday transactions, but could pose a potential risk factor for money market funds (MMFs).

The biggest hurdle to passing the bill is seen as securing Democratic support. In the Senate, at least 10 Democratic votes are seen as necessary for passage, and Democrats are seeking stronger investor protection, anti-money laundering measures and conflict-of-interest provisions. In particular, a provision restricting the president, senior government officials and their families from owning or controlling crypto companies is cited as a key issue.

The analysis says momentum for advancing the bill could weaken if industry consensus and efforts to persuade Democrats do not materialise. Seiberg said passage in 2026 is not impossible, but the path will become increasingly difficult if the industry fails to find common ground and secure Democratic support.

With these variables, the central task in the market structure bill debate remains political and industry compromise over the scope of stablecoin rewards, the strength of regulation, and conflict-of-interest provisions. How far concessions go to win Democratic votes in the Senate, and whether banks and the crypto industry can produce an acceptable compromise, are expected to determine the pace of the bill. How the White House and Congress set standards on investor protection and anti-money laundering measures, and how they delineate roles between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, are also expected to be important turning points in future negotiations.