Global markets reacted in sharply different ways after Big Tech giants released their latest fourth-quarter report cards in the fight for AI leadership. The real winner of the 2025 fourth-quarter earnings season was Meta. The results clearly demonstrated the market’s most preferred “profit-generating AI” model.

Meta said fourth-quarter revenue for 2025 came to $59.89 billion. That was up 24 percent from a year earlier and well above the market forecast of $58.59 billion. Earnings per share came in at $8.88, beating the forecast of $8.23.

With AI investment immediately translating into better ad recommendations and targeting efficiency, advertising revenue grew steadily and led to an upward revision in revenue guidance. The figures confirmed that AI is working not just as a cost but as a tool that generates cash.

Meta set its capital expenditure forecast for this year at $115.0 billion to $135.0 billion, declaring an aggressive infrastructure investment plan. The figure was larger than expected, but after-hours shares jumped 9 percent on confidence that solid ad revenue would support it. It underscored how high a premium the market assigns to companies that turn AI investment results into earnings leverage.

Microsoft, an “AI leader,” bowed its head despite strong results. It posted quarterly revenue of $81.3 billion, up 17 percent from a year earlier, but its shares fell amid investor worries about expanded cloud investment.

The market was particularly sensitive to surging investment costs. With capital expenditure up 66 percent from a year earlier, the perception strengthened that AI is a structure that weighs on profitability in the short term. The market is now asking Microsoft not about the title of “AI leader,” but about when it will recoup funds tied up in massive data centres and GPU investment. After-hours shares fell 5 percent, suggesting growing calls for proof of the profitability of AI investment across Big Tech.

Tesla received a relatively favourable assessment because it slightly topped expectations in a market that had anticipated weakness. Tesla’s fourth-quarter revenue was $24.9 billion, slightly above the market forecast of $24.79 billion. Adjusted earnings per share also came to $0.5, beating analysts’ forecast of $0.45. Annual revenue recorded its first decline since the company’s founding, down 3 percent, but the fourth-quarter results beat reduced expectations and eased fears of a margin collapse.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk (일론 머스크) said in the announcement that it would invest about $2 billion in his AI startup xAI. He also reaffirmed his determination to break through slowing EV sales with AI-based new businesses such as robotaxis and humanoid robots, including Optimus. The market responded with a 3 percent after-hours rise, giving credit to the direction of this shift rather than the immediate earnings weakness.

The earnings releases from the three Big Tech firms are being assessed as meaning the AI fantasy phase is over and a “profit verification phase” has arrived. The market is recognising models like Meta’s that embed AI into existing platforms and generate immediate profit leverage. The technical efficiency to absorb astronomical infrastructure costs and convert them into profit in the numbers is expected to be a key variable that will determine the fate of Big Tech companies going forward.