[Digital Today reporter Daegeon Seok] Samsung Electronics rose as high as 121,200 won intraday on Dec. 30, the last trading day of the year, setting a record. After its market value topped 700 trillion won for the first time a day earlier, it ushered in the era of "120,000-won Samsung."

The Korea Exchange said Samsung Electronics shares ended the regular session at 110,990 won as of 3:30 p.m., up 400 won from the previous day. Its market value stands at about 710 trillion won.

This is the opposite of a year ago, when operating profit forecasts plunged ahead of the launch of the second Trump administration. The memory market, chilled by low-priced competition from China and tariff worries, has flipped negative projections as AI demand surges.

On Dec. 30 last year, Samsung Electronics shares were 53,200 won and the market was uniformly pessimistic. At the time, the consensus for its 2024 fourth-quarter operating profit fell to 8.97 trillion won. That reflected continued downward revisions from 12.66 trillion won forecast six months earlier. The annual operating profit forecast for 2025 was also cut by nearly 30 percent to 40.37 trillion won from 56.22 trillion won three months earlier.

The biggest concerns then were low-priced pressure from China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and tariff risks from U.S. President Donald Trump. PC 8-gigabit DDR4 prices halved to $1.35 in December 2024 from $2.10 in July, according to DRAMeXchange. TrendForce projected that general-purpose DRAM prices would fall another 8 to 13 percent in the first quarter of 2025. In that environment, the market including brokerages expected Samsung Electronics to struggle to deliver growth in 2025.

◆DRAM demand stays strong as replacement cycle arrives

The mood has completely changed a year later. Hana Securities forecasts Samsung Electronics' operating profit at 18.3 trillion won in the fourth quarter of 2025. It cited a larger-than-expected rise in memory semiconductor prices. It raised its estimate for the increase in blended DRAM average selling prices to 31 percent and for NAND to 18 percent.

Operating profit in the memory business is expected to rise 97 percent from the previous quarter to 15.4 trillion won. Hana Securities estimates the DRAM operating margin will exceed 50 percent and the NAND business will reach about 20 percent. It said order strength remains very strong, centered on servers.

The outlook for 2026 is even brighter. Hana Securities projected revenue of 438 trillion won and operating profit of 113 trillion won, up 32 percent and 169 percent, respectively, from the previous year. It said demand for general server DRAM has secured medium- to long-term visibility as AI-driven data use rises and a replacement cycle arrives.

In addition, U.S. semiconductor restrictions on China are also unfolding favorably for South Korean companies. The industry said on Dec. 30 the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) will introduce an annual approval process for bringing equipment into China for Samsung Electronics. It is a looser measure than requiring individual permits each time equipment is brought in, easing uncertainty over operations at its China plants.

◆"It has the greatest room to expand DRAM production capacity"

The business environment for the first half is also positive. The semiconductor export industry business outlook index for the first quarter of 2026 rose to 187.6, up 41.8 points from the fourth quarter of 2025, according to IM Securities. A semiconductor export boom is expected to continue as AI HBM exports expand and prices rise due to shortages of general-purpose memory supply.

KB Securities projected that Samsung Electronics' operating profit in 2026 will rise 129 percent from a year earlier to near 100 trillion won. Hana Securities said Samsung Electronics has the greatest room among the three major companies to expand production capacity for general-purpose DRAM.

It also forecast that HBM demand for ASICs will rise meaningfully, doubling HBM revenue in 2026. It said securing additional customers would leave room for upward revisions to earnings.

Nomura Securities said fourth-quarter prices for general-purpose DRAM and NAND surged, sharply improving profitability in the memory business. It said general-purpose memory profitability is nearing HBM profitability. It said while demand is rising for both HBM and general-purpose DRAM on expanded AI server demand, supply is failing to keep up.

Nomura Securities raised its target price for Samsung Electronics to 160,000 won from 150,000 won. Its forecast for 2026 operating profit is 133.4 trillion won, far above the market consensus.