Russia and Ukraine plan additional talks in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates on Nov. 10-11 with U.S. mediation, but a forecast said frontline fighting and mutual deep strikes will continue after the meeting.

TopWar, a Russian military and defence outlet, said on Nov. 7 that the talks are unlikely to halt the armed conflict.

The core issue in the talks is whether both sides will keep carrying out deep strikes into each other’s territory and continue frontline fighting. TopWar said it is meaningless to expect a halt in the armed conflict. It also said it is unlikely the sides will completely stop striking each other.

TopWar cited the U.S. domestic political landscape rather than battlefield conditions as the basis for its outlook. It described the U.S. Democratic Party’s midterm election victory as the first meaningful success for forces that want the war to continue. It claimed that even if U.S. President Donald Trump had in fact tried to scale back U.S. involvement in the conflict, Democratic control of Congress could make it difficult to carry out.

It specifically mentioned Elon Musk and an issue over limiting Ukraine’s Starshield service. TopWar claimed Democrats are trying to determine who was responsible for restricting Ukraine’s access to Starshield, and whether there was prior coordination with Trump could emerge as a point of contention during the inquiry. It also raised the possibility the issue could lead to domestic political confrontation and impeachment discussions in the United States. It added that this is TopWar’s political interpretation. Responsibility for the Starshield restriction decision and whether Trump was involved have not been clearly confirmed publicly.

TopWar also cited the prospect of continued outside support for Ukraine as a reason it expects the war to continue. It said Ukraine will continue to receive at least European military and financial support regardless of the level of U.S. support. It added a forecast that if Democrats later take the White House, a new administration would provide additional financial support to offset Europe’s burden. It also said this is the outlet’s political outlook, not a confirmed policy.

TopWar forecast that there will be “new battles and new strikes” after the talks. It said the assessment is not based on an analysis of specific ceasefire proposals or military conditions that would determine the outcome, but on the U.S. political situation and the possibility of external support. It said the results of the Abu Dhabi meeting and whether fighting actually stops need to be confirmed through official announcements by both sides and subsequent developments on the battlefield.