[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee] Bitcoin’s rebound faces a double burden from expanding derivatives exposure and $643 million in exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows.

On Nov. 1 (local time), blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that the market is being tested on whether demand can sustain the recovery until employment data due on Nov. 6.

At the center of this move is the nature of the money supporting the rebound. Derivatives exposure in bitcoin has risen, while funds have flowed out of ETFs, which signal spot demand. That means the rebound may be less durable if spot inflows do not follow.

ETFs saw net outflows of $643 million, while exposure to the derivatives market grew. This is seen as a sign that market investors are leaning more toward leveraged positions than spot buying. Even if prices rise, upside momentum could become fragile if ETF redemptions continue and derivatives exposure increases further.

Crypto derivatives analytics firm BlockScholes said in an Oct. 30 report that $1.53 billion of positions across the overall crypto market were liquidated over the previous 24 hours, with 84 percent of those in long positions. Even so, new positions can flow in while forced liquidations occur, making it hard to say that large-scale liquidations led to a broader reduction in market exposure.

Data confirmed on Oct. 31 from Coinalyze showed that open interest, aggregating some bitcoin derivatives, stood at $28 billion in dollar terms, up 3 percent from 24 hours earlier. Dollar-denominated open interest is affected not only by contract size but also by price moves. That means this figure alone cannot be used to judge leverage multiples against posted margin or additional liquidation risks.

Funding rates are also an indicator to watch. BlockScholes said bitcoin funding rates on Binance fell close to zero during the sharp drop but stayed positive. That means the cost paid by long holders to short holders declined, not that open positions or margin risk was resolved. A key check is whether open interest and the cost burden of long positions rise at the same time during the rebound.

The key is the employment data on Nov. 6. With risk-asset appetite likely to waver around major macro data releases, it has become important for bitcoin whether spot demand actually flows in. The near-term direction is expected to be decided by whether the derivatives-led rebound continues, or whether spot money, including ETFs, returns to support the recovery.

The market is also watching the balance of money flows. If ETF outflows persist, selling pressure could be confirmed again in each rebound phase. If the expansion in derivatives exposure is temporary and spot money recovers, the recent rebound could secure a more stable base. Ultimately, the success of this rebound depends less on price levels than on whether spot demand can offset increased leverage in the derivatives market.