Retail investors' Bitcoin deposits to Binance rose to a high level in six months, while whale deposits have continued to fall for nearly two months.
CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Oct. 26 that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said his analysis of Bitcoin deposit flows on Binance shows retail investors and large holders are moving in opposite directions.
The 30-day cumulative value of retail Bitcoin deposits to Binance nearly doubled to $10.75 billion from $5.5 billion. The figure is the highest in about six months. Darkfost said deposits by small holders increased rapidly while Bitcoin stayed above $80,000 for several weeks.
Exchange deposits are typically seen as a preparatory step before selling cryptocurrencies held. In on-chain analysis, it is considered one of the indicators used to gauge potential selling pressure. Darkfost said it is known that retail investors tend to move more emotionally than whales and react sensitively to price moves, but he assessed the gap this time as "particularly large."
Whale Bitcoin deposits to Binance, however, were tallied as having declined for almost two months. Deposits fell to $3.8 billion from $5.9 billion in late August, a drop of about 36 percent. Darkfost said of the trend, "There is no sign of urgent moves from whales."
The difference between retail investors and whales also showed up in how they interpreted the recent price rebound. Darkfost said retail investors appear to be using the first rebound after a year-long decline as a "window for an exit." He said demand to reduce holdings at more acceptable prices and ease accumulated psychological pressure led to higher exchange deposits.
Whales, by contrast, are not showing signs they are rushing to bring holdings to market at current price levels. That is because deposits to Binance itself are falling. As a result, the market is now watching whether whales will continue to hold back deposits even if Bitcoin prices rise further.
The trend shows that strategies differ among participants even in the same bullish period for Bitcoin. It suggests retail investors see the rebound as a chance to cash out, while large holders do not yet view it as a time to sell. Going forward, whether retail-driven exchange inflows turn into actual selling pressure, and whether the decline in whale deposits persists, are expected to be key indicators for gauging Bitcoin supply and demand.