[DigitalToday Yoo Seung-a (유승아) intern reporter] XRP is facing short-term downside pressure ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision due at the end of October and Ripple's annual event, Swell 2026.

On Oct. 13 (local time), blockchain media outlet Decrypt reported that XRP is trying to rebound from a recent low around $1.40, but selling pressure still has the upper hand on the four-hour chart.

The market's main turning point is the last week of October. A Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held on Oct. 27 to 28, and Ripple Swell 2026 will take place in Hudson Yards, New York, on Oct. 27 to 29. Both events could shift investor sentiment, but it has been raised that selling may pull prices lower before then.

Technically, the $1.4450 to $1.4510 range is a key resistance zone. XRP is trading below $1.4153, where the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA) sits, and below $1.4508, where the 55-period exponential moving average is located. A bearish structure shift that occurred at $1.4458 last week also remains in place. That area is acting as resistance, and the 55-period EMA is also reinforcing resistance in the $1.44 to $1.45 range.

XRP rebounded from last week's low of $1.3189, but it has not yet reached the prior high of $1.531. If buying fails to break through resistance, this rebound could turn into a move that retests resistance and then falls again. If a four-hour candle closes clearly above $1.4510, XRP could reclaim the 55-period EMA and invalidate the short-term bearish view. Until then, sellers may open new short positions or add to existing positions whenever the price approaches resistance.

Macroeconomic conditions are also a burden. The Fed raised the benchmark interest rate to 3.75 to 4 percent as of Sept. 16, and markets are watching whether there will be an additional increase at the Oct. 27 to 28 meeting.

Ripple Swell 2026 will be held by integrating, for the first time, Swell, which is centered on institutional investors, and XRPL Apex, a developer-focused event. Key agenda items include an XRP ETF, tokenisation, institutional payments and the future development direction of the XRP Ledger. Daily net inflows in U.S. spot XRP ETFs show that institutional demand for XRP-linked investment products is continuing. Still, for such expectations to lead to a price reversal, the short-term resistance must first be broken.

Since the start of the year, XRP has fallen 17.6 percent. Over the same period, bitcoin fell 3.5 percent and ethereum slid 9.5 percent. XRP's market capitalisation is about $88.4 billion, accounting for about 3.1 percent of the overall cryptocurrency market, but its decline has been larger than major assets, suggesting it is under relatively strong selling pressure.

Volatility indicators also point to limited price movement. The average true range (ATR) is 0.0227, and the upper volatility band is around $1.4493. That level is close to $1.4458, the threshold for the bearish structure shift, adding to the importance of the resistance zone.

On the downside, the first target price is $1.3812. If that level breaks, last week's low of $1.3189 emerges as the next downside target, and if selling continues, the price could fall to $1.2468, the lowest target price in this analysis.

Ultimately, the key question is whether XRP can break through the $1.4450 to $1.4510 resistance zone ahead of the Fed meeting and Ripple Swell. For now, a bearish technical trend and interest-rate uncertainty are combining to keep sellers in control.