An analysis said XRP is showing a price pattern similar to 2022 as it slides back below the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA).

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain outlet, reported on Oct. 9 that XRP has stayed weak after failing to recover $1.52 recently, and is forming a new support zone at lower levels.

Analyst ChartNerd said XRP is facing additional downward pressure after meeting resistance at the 50-week EMA. XRP is trading around $1.40. It is down about 0.90 percent in the past 24 hours and about 7 percent over the past week. The decline is large given it traded as high as $1.5222 at one point last week.

The key is $1.52 and the 50-week EMA. ChartNerd has previously pointed to $1.52 as an important level. He warned that the downtrend could continue for a while as XRP has failed to move back above that area. He said XRP could fall further over the next few months and judged it is highly likely to spend more time in the fourth quarter building a new price base.

ChartNerd did not view the move solely as a one-way bearish signal. He said XRP is making higher lows below the 50-week EMA and assessed that structure as similar to the "higher-low base" seen in 2022. He has said that pattern does not necessarily mean a bearish move and could instead be a positive signal.

In a recent chart, he pointed out that the 2022 and 2026 moves look similar. In both periods, XRP fell below a declining 50-week EMA and then began forming higher lows. In 2022, a sharp price rise followed, but this time the difference is that no confirmation signal at a comparable level has appeared yet.

ChartNerd again cited the 50-week EMA as the key benchmark that will determine the direction ahead. He said the outlook could improve if XRP recovers that level. He said that if XRP moves back above the 50-week EMA, his previously suggested $1.80 to $2.00 target could also become valid.

Other analysts have also presented key resistance lines. Ali Martinez left open the possibility of a long-term rise, but said XRP needs to close above $3.66 on a monthly basis to confirm a trend breakout. If that condition is met, he judged it could open a path to $9.49 and then $31.87.

Peter Brandt mentioned the possibility of $2.16 based on an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. He warned, however, that strong resistance and selling pressure are forming from the mid-$1.60s to above $3.00.

The short-term focus in the XRP market has therefore become clearer. The outlook is that the near-term path will be determined by whether the price continues a longer correction phase below the 50-week EMA, or regains key resistance and produces a rebound signal similar to the period after 2022.