Shayne Coplan (셰인 코플란), chief executive of prediction market Polymarket, described crypto investing that chases “100x returns” as irrational overheating.

On Oct. 7, local time, Cointelegraph reported that Coplan said at the Token2049 event in Singapore that some traders are turning to prediction markets, where they can weigh the probability of specific events, rather than bet on sharp token rallies.

Coplan said competition has intensified to find the “token that will rise 100x” first in the crypto market. He said investors buy expecting a price surge even while believing the asset has no value, then try to sell for profit before the price falls to zero.

He added that while some people make large sums with such a strategy, rising asset prices eventually come back down. He described it as “irrational overheating” and a “hot-potato game.”

Coplan said the profit structure of prediction markets differs from token investing. He said Polymarket offers no room for exponential gains, but trading is based on information and probability analysis rather than expectations of short-term spikes.

Prediction market trading is also growing. DefiLlama said Polymarket’s trading volume over the past seven days was $1.21 billion, ranking second in the industry. Kalshi ranked first with $2.3 billion. Still, it is difficult to conclude that funds in the altcoin market have moved into prediction markets based on volume growth alone.

Growth in prediction markets does not guarantee investment stability. In December last year, 10x Research assessed prediction markets as a new competitive arena in the crypto market. It said professional traders who use data are earning profits by exploiting information and price gaps with retail investors seeking short-term gains.

Regulatory pressure is also growing. JPMorgan Chase was reported to have ended its financial relationship with Polymarket in August due to regulatory concerns. It was also reported to remain interested in participating as an underwriter if Polymarket pushes ahead with a listing.

In the United States, more than 10 states have taken legal action against either Polymarket or Kalshi, or both, over sports event contracts. In other countries, regulators are also blocking or restricting access to Polymarket.

Coplan’s remarks amount to a claim that some investors who chased sharp token price gains are turning to trading based on analysis of the likelihood of events occurring. But because information and analytical ability drive returns, retail investors could be placed at a disadvantage. For prediction markets to keep growing, resolving information asymmetry and regulatory uncertainty, along with expanding trading volume, remains a task.