[DigitalToday intern reporter Seung-a Yoo] Bitcoin rose in each of the 12 months after the last three U.S. midterm elections, data showed. In 2018, however, it plunged 45.5 percent in the month after the vote, leaving room for the possibility of a large correction even if post-midterm strength emerges.

On Oct. 6 (local time), blockchain outlet Decrypt reported that CryptoQuant analysed Bitcoin’s moves after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterm elections ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterms. Bitcoin rose 24.5 percent, 44.9 percent and 92.3 percent, respectively, in the 12 months after each election.

A similar pattern appeared in U.S. stocks. In the 12 months after 19 midterm elections since 1950, the S&P 500 rose every time, with an average gain of about 15.4 percent. Past performance does not guarantee future gains. Bitcoin’s post-midterm advance has occurred only three times, leaving too small a sample to use it as a reliable trading rule.

The 2018 case in particular shows the post-election rise was not smooth. Bitcoin fell about 45.5 percent in the month after the midterms, but later rebounded and ended up 44.9 percent higher over 12 months. That means a positive one-year result after the midterms alone cannot rule out the risk of a steep drop beforehand.

Easing political uncertainty is cited as a factor that could influence Bitcoin. After an election, visibility improves on the congressional landscape and the policy environment ahead. Historically, this period has overlapped with stock market moves that are favourable to risk assets.

Bitcoin is also affected by other variables such as interest rates, regulation and investment demand. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained high at 5.28 percent as of Oct. 2. Higher Treasury yields can raise the relative appeal of interest-bearing safe assets and weigh on risk assets.

Uncertainty over cryptocurrency regulation also remains. In September, the U.S. Senate failed to advance procedures for the Clarity bill addressing crypto market structure. As a result, Bitcoin’s post-midterm path is expected to be influenced not only by the political calendar but also by changes in the regulatory environment.

Fund flows showed both positive and slowing signals. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $241.1 million from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2. Net inflows continued but fell sharply from about $2.39 billion the previous week. The analysis said whether actual buying demand persists after the election could be an important indicator for judging the next move.

On-chain indicators also require caution in interpretation. CryptoQuant analysed that Bitcoin’s price and the number of active addresses did not always move in the same direction. Active addresses are an indicator of network activity and do not mean the number of individual investors, and they do not directly reflect demand through spot ETFs.

Ultimately, whether the 2026 post-midterm period follows the past pattern will depend on factors including whether U.S. Treasury yields stabilise, whether investment demand persists and whether the regulatory environment improves. The historical record shows Bitcoin rose in the year after the midterms, but it also shows the possibility of rising after suffering significant losses, as in 2018.