An analysis found that the decoupling phenomenon, in which U.S. carbon emissions fall even as the economy grows, became clearer after the 2008 financial crisis.

IT outlet Ars Technica recently analysed that, after comparing U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) data from the World Bank with fossil fuel and industrial sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions data from the Global Carbon Project, the long-term trends of the two indicators diverged around 2008. It explained that the “closed scissors,” in which economic growth and emissions moved together, began to open.

U.S. CO2 emissions rose for decades before plunging after the 2008 financial crisis. They later went through year-to-year fluctuations and a steep drop and rebound during the COVID-19 period, but showed a long-term decline. Real GDP, by contrast, kept rising steadily except for the pandemic shock. That means economic growth does not necessarily accompany an increase in fossil fuel emissions.

A similar trend appeared earlier in Sweden. Sweden’s emissions fell by about one-third from their 1996 peak and declined to less than half compared with their 1970 high. Over the same period, GDP expanded to more than double since 1996.

That does not mean the pace of emissions cuts is sufficient. The United States emitted about 4.9 billion tonnes of CO2 from fossil fuels and industrial sectors in 2024. The outlet pointed to future risk factors including power demand from the expansion of data centres, fossil fuel-based backup generation facilities, and changes in renewable energy and efficiency policies.

GDP also shows only the scale of growth and cannot explain the quality of life or distribution effects. Even so, the analysis said the trend over the past more than 10 years shows it is possible for the United States to grow its economy while reducing carbon emissions.