An analysis said bitcoin has entered the early phase of a new bull market, but short-term overheating and fatigue signals are appearing at the same time.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Tuesday that CryptoQuant said in a weekly report that bitcoin briefly rose to $87,400, an eight-month high, but the rally is losing momentum and the likelihood of a correction is rising.

CryptoQuant said the broader trend still leans toward a bull market. Its proprietary bitcoin "bull score" stood at 90 out of 100, remaining in a very strong bullish zone. CryptoQuant said it views the current phase as the early stage of a bull market, while noting that recent indicators show signs of overheating and fatigue together.

As a short-term warning signal, it pointed first to expanding trader profitability. Traders' unrealised on-chain return rose to 33 percent, the highest level since December 2024. In the past, sharp jumps in such returns often appeared ahead of selling pressure and price declines.

Profit-taking also increased. Bitcoin holders realised profits totaling 25,700 BTC on Sept. 22 alone. That was the largest daily amount in 2026. CryptoQuant said there were cases in which such moves appeared as a precursor to a local top after a sharp rise.

Selling pressure was also detected in altcoins. The seven-day cumulative count of altcoin-related transactions flowing into exchanges totaled 76,000, and the number of deposit addresses was 51,000. That was the highest level since October 2025. A surge in exchange deposits is generally interpreted as a signal of preparation to sell.

On the demand side, upward momentum weakened. Estimated spot demand totaled minus 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days, extending a contraction trend. Speculative futures demand, which had driven recent price moves, also plunged to plus 16,000 BTC from plus 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14. CryptoQuant said, "Without new demand, it is difficult to maintain the price uptrend," and it saw further short-term gains as unlikely because both spot and futures have weakened.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out on Sept. 28 that estimated total bitcoin demand worsened to minus 171,000 BTC on a 30-day cumulative basis. He said futures demand shrank to about 3,000 BTC while the bitcoin price rose to $84,000 over 15 days.

It also said a correction does not necessarily mean an imminent trend reversal. CryptoQuant cited $80,000, the 365-day moving average, as the first support level if a short-term correction begins. That level also confirmed entry into a bull market last week. The second is $71,000, the 200-day moving average, and the third is $67,000, the traders' realised price.

CryptoQuant forecast that as long as these three price levels hold, the correction would be closer to healthy consolidation in the early bull market than a shift to a downtrend. It said the market would view as key variables how much actual selling pressure grows during the process of easing short-term overheating and whether weakened demand recovers.