As October approaches, expectations are rising again for “Uptober” as bitcoin has historically shown strength in the month. But after seasonal bullishness collapsed against macro factors last October, some analysts say whether gains can be sustained this year will depend on ETF fund flows and the macro environment.

According to blockchain outlet U.Today on Sept. 28, bitcoin finished October higher 10 times in the 13 years from 2013 to 2025, with an average return of about 19 percent.

Last October was cited as an example showing that those statistics do not always hold. Bitcoin started early October 2025 at about $119,000 and at one point hit a record high above $126,000. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw about $4.7 billion of inflows in the first half of the month, supporting the uptrend.

But the move did not last long. A new U.S.-China trade dispute fuelled risk-off sentiment, and the crypto market saw record liquidations at the time. U.Today said the “setup collapsed,” and bitcoin ended October lower for the first time after seven years of October gains. The price slid to around $105,000, down about 4 percent for the month. A broader altcoin index fell more, and ether dropped about 6 to 7 percent.

This year’s starting point for October is different from last year. Bitcoin has already risen about 9 percent in September, and after gaining about 25 percent in August it recently climbed above $87,000, its highest level in eight months. ETF inflows have also increased, while short liquidations and improved liquidity have accelerated the pace of the move higher.

Altcoins are also moving first. Solana, XRP, NEAR, Chainlink and Zcash posted meaningful gains in September, and ether extended gains after rebounding in August. The trend is helping to raise expectations for October strength.

But the market having already priced in a substantial part of bullish sentiment is a burden. U.Today said “opportunities and risks are being created at the same time.” Further gains are possible if ETF demand remains firm and the macro environment does not worsen, but if prices rise in a steeper straight line, it warned the market could become more vulnerable to leverage-driven pullbacks.

The key takeaway from last year’s episode is clear, the outlet said. “Seasonality can support an existing trend, but it cannot offset a major macro shock,” it said. October is starting this year with a bullish mood, but in the market, a more important point to watch than the name “Uptober” itself is how long the momentum lasts.