[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Bitcoin fell below $83,000 early in the week. It still held a gain of more than 40 percent for the third quarter, putting its strongest third-quarter performance since 2017 within reach.

Cointelegraph reported on Sept. 28, local time, that bitcoin weakened along with U.S. stock index futures as the possibility of additional U.S. strikes on Iran came into focus. Downside pressure grew after the weekly close.

BTC/USD fell below $83,000 on TradingView to hit its lowest level in a week. The weekly close, however, was $84,450, the highest since late January. Above the current price, $88,700, the 2026 yearly open, and $86,000, the average purchase price for bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund investors, were cited as resistance zones.

In the short term, exchange order-book liquidity also weighed as it capped the upside. CoinGlass data showed sell orders worth $30 million around $85,700, and the spot price immediately accelerated its decline. With both the September monthly close and the third-quarter close scheduled this week, the battle around major price levels has become more important.

On the downside, $80,500, the average purchase price of companies holding bitcoin as a treasury asset, and $76,700, the true market mean that refers to investors' total acquisition price, are cited as support zones. CryptoQuant data showed the average purchase price for short-term holders who bought bitcoin in the past 1 to 4 weeks was $78,300, and they remain in profit.

Macro factors are also adding to market volatility. On Oct. 1, the August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is due. Market estimates are 3.6 percent year-on-year and 0.3 percent month-on-month. PCE is an inflation gauge the U.S. Federal Reserve focuses on, and after the Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage point at its September meeting, the market has been pricing in the possibility of an additional hike by year-end. CME Group's FedWatch showed the probability of a further 0.25 percentage point increase at the October meeting rose to 70.3 percent as of Sept. 28 from 57.7 percent a week earlier.

Middle East developments are also weighing on risk assets broadly. U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal over the weekend and did not rule out further military action. In the aftermath, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude surged to $95 a barrel and rose 3 percent on Sept. 28.

Later in the week, the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report is expected to be another turning point. August employment was seen rising by 162,000, far above expectations, which strengthened expectations for tightening. The market sees September job gains at around 83,000.

Technically, whether $82,500 holds is seen as a key level. Trader Rekt Capital is examining the possibility that a 2026 bear market could end, citing an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. He said that around $82,500 in this cycle is similar to the upper end of the 2022 accumulation pattern, and he sees a recent reversal signal as confirmed only if that level turns into support. If bitcoin fails to turn $82,500 into support, he warned it could return to the $60,000 to $80,000 range and face a correction within it.

This week, what levels bitcoin holds and breaks has become more important than the price itself. With the quarter-end, U.S. inflation and employment indicators, and Middle East variables converging in one week, technical trends and the macro environment have entered a phase where they could determine direction at the same time.