Bitcoin and gold price moves are becoming more closely intertwined, at their tightest in years.

On Sept. 16, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that bitcoin and gold’s short-term correlation has recently neared historical extremes, reviving views that bitcoin is “digital gold” rather than a risk asset.

Adam Livingston (아담 리빙스턴), vice president for investments at bitcoin treasury firm Strive, pointed to a clear rise in the bitcoin-gold correlation. Since 2020, the full-sample correlation has been just +0.17. Over the long term, that means the two assets generally moved independently.

Recent readings, however, look very different. Figures Livingston presented put the 30-day correlation at +0.68, the 60-day at +0.58, the 90-day at +0.63 and the 252-day at +0.41. The 30-day and 252-day figures are around the 99th percentile of the historical range, and the 90-day figure is close to the 99.9th percentile.

The shift also intersects with a long-held view that bitcoin and gold have opposite characteristics. Gold has been seen as a representative safe-haven asset during periods of inflation, currency instability and financial-market uncertainty, while bitcoin has been classified as relatively risky. Recently, however, the two assets have increasingly moved in the same direction.

Livingston said bitcoin and gold can be seen not as completely opposing investments but as “different exits from the same system.” That means both assets are reacting to similar macro variables as market participants watch inflation, interest rates, Treasury yields and currency moves together.

That does not mean the two assets always move in the same direction. Correlation is only an indicator of how similarly prices moved over a certain period, and does not mean one asset causes the other to move. The recent high correlation is being taken as a sign that the bitcoin-gold relationship has changed significantly in recent months.

A sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields is also cited as a factor weighing on markets. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at one point rose above 5 percent before falling back. Gold, which generally does not pay income, can come under pressure when yields rise and the dollar strengthens. Bitcoin has also faced selling pressure, closing at about $75,613 on Sept. 15 after topping $82,000 earlier this month.

Against that backdrop, some in the market say bitcoin is finally starting to move like digital gold. It remains to be seen for now whether the current co-movement will lead to a structural shift or prove temporary, driven by interest-rate and currency variables.

Bitcoin and gold are suddenly trading like the same macro asset. And the data is extreme. Since 2020, their full-sample correlation is just +0.17. By year: 2020: +0.26 2021: +0.01 2022: +0.12 2023: +0.12 2024: +0.14 2025: +0.09 2026 YTD: +0.43 - highest in the sample. But… pic.twitter.com/ah6THhI7JJ